TRUMP IN GREENLAND, MEXICO, CANADA, NATO, CHINA, RUSSIA & INDIA
US President-elect Donald Trump’s worldview is the most inarticulate. Yet there are subtle hints as to what he wishes to accomplish in his four-year term. All his intemperance is geared to grab media eyeballs while camouflaging his real intent. He wants MAGA but will not go to war.
For him, military power is the battering ram for, say, Greenland. I do not believe he will invade and capture Greenland. Rather, he is setting the stage for negotiations with Denmark for an Arctic USN base to oversee Russian and Chinese marine movement on the Pacific-Atlantic route via the Bering Strait. Trump is far too astute and will not indulge in foolhardy ventures like prospecting for minerals in the Arctic, knowing that it would anger green lobbies.
In the same vein, Trump is also indirectly threatening other NATO allies if they do not heed his MAGA demands, such as relaxing migration norms for uber-qualified scientific HR while capping routine/family migration quotas, relocating plants from energy-starved Europe to America, and so on; Europe is in no condition to deny Trump anything he demands. Trump’s ultimate threat is to disband NATO unless all members cough up at least 5% of their GDP every year for defence spending, but that will remain only a threat.
Likewise, he is patronizing Canada and asking them to become America’s 51st state. Trump has the seven oil sisters clawing at him, for which he wishes to ramp up oil and gas production even in Alaska.
Were Canada to officially pool its oil and gas reserves in Alberta with the US, that would give a big boost to the US oil industry, which would become one of the top five oil producers in the world, aside from limitless business opportunities for US companies and fixing global oil prices.
Donald Trump shares an IA created photo on Truth Social of him overlooking a mountainside with a Canadian flag waving.
Likewise for the auto, aluminum, and other major industries, Trump probably expects Canada to join an economic union with America; otherwise, he would slap 25-30% additional import tariffs on Canadian exports. The same applies to Mexico.
Ultimately, Trump’s goal would be to provide export incentives to local and expatriate businesses, excluding Chinese, to export to America. This would provide relatively lower-cost output to remain available to Americans while affording portability of businesses and HR between the US, Canada, and Mexico, short of a common market.
That would also address illegal immigration from Mexico and the rest of Latin America. The businessman that he is, Trump realizes that lazy white Americans will not power the dreams of MAGA; mostly migrants will.
Much as the neocons in his team would like, Trump will not allow the Ukraine war to last much longer. The shrewd businessman in him recognizes the fact that impoverishment of the West would deprive American businesses of a giant market.
He equally realizes Russia’s concern and is more than willing to meet Putin to resolve the Ukraine war. Trump also understands that Russia is host to the world’s biggest oil, strategic, and high-value minerals, something that declining US manufacturers desperately need to keep the US ‘chip’ military and electronics industries alive and preserve jobs. Russia is among the largest wheat producers in the world (Ukraine having been wiped off the map) that brings the morning bread to European and American breakfast tables.
That Russia, under Putin, owns a formidable military, technological, and IT machines is not lost on Trump. Trump’s repeated threats to NATO members also suggest that Trump is asking them to put their houses in order first instead of indulging in amateur adventurism against Russia. For that, a period of peace is necessary, as much for Russia as for Europe.
At the same time, Europe’s existing military forces must cooperate with the US and keep a hawk’s eye upon Russian ambitions. In effect, while Trump realizes that Russia cannot be ignored, he also has to placate his NATO allies and his funders who have lost very substantial business interests in Russia.
These reasons will impel Trump to offer a peace plan to Russia for Ukraine that would probably be reminiscent of the 38th Parallel in Korea and an undertaking that no country in the CIS/Balkans that is not already a NATO member will become a member and NATO ballistic missiles and ground forces will not be stationed in any such country.
Also Read: Will Trump 1.0 Be Trump 2.0? Critical Challenges Facing His Second Presidency
Further, the US will reopen its SWIFT system for Russia in return for US-owned businesses and FIs returning to Russia, unfreezing all Russian and Western financial assets, and removing sanctions on individuals and entities. In return, Russia may not contest a USN base in Greenland and allow greater access to Russian markets for Western goods and services, aside from an assurance that it would not invade any NATO member. Trump is not spoiled for choice in any case.
As for China, the situation is not much different. It will not take China more than 5-7 years to catch up with US military power. While China has business ambitions across the world, it will be ready and willing to fight a war only from its territory.
Trump holds Mr. Xi in reasonably high esteem and would like to do business with China. Equally, Trump realizes that China has trumped (no pun intended) the US in several high-technology fields and intellectual inputs that could be put to good use for struggling US manufacturers and institutions of higher learning.
It is heartening to note that while Trump declares China the US’s principal enemy, nowhere does he imply the use of military force, realizing its futility. This is a tightrope that Trump would have to walk so that MAGA makes America prosperous again.
As for India, Trump seems least likely to look at India just as a military and economic counterfoil to China, fully realizing that India is worse off than NATO members, proportionately and economically, and under constant military threat.
If Trump is able to carry off his epochal improvement in relations with China and Russia, India would be the lowest on his list of priorities.
The only way India may benefit from such improved relations is that our northern, NE, and western borders may become marginally less prone to Chinese, Pak (and now) BD invasion for the time being; yet the threat will remain very substantial as China needs raw materials (like iron ore) and other natural resources like water for its factories.
High import tariffs would also be the last nail in our notional exports coffin. Import of intermediates would fare no better since US manufacturers would factor higher import tariffs in their pricing for exports; a rapidly declining INR value will make matters worse.
The only saving grace may be that oil prices from West Asia may decline further if a US-Canada cartel comes into being.
Finally, many big Indian businesses are busy vacuuming up USDs in anticipation of investing in the US, rather than in India. Neither will Trump need Adani and/or Pannun/Nijjar to wring the Prime Baboon’s neck, nor will he need weak-kneed military support from India against China.
Trump has a very clear worldview, although his articulation is deliberately poor and ambiguous, linguistically most offensive, all evidence of his being a transactional President or a Umreeki ‘bania’. The impression that Elon Musk has ‘purchased’ Trump will need to be shed; otherwise, it would seem to be a party of madcaps and freeloaders.
Trump would also need to rein in the die-hard neocons in his team (that have not moved from their 1945 positions, even though most were not even born then) as he goes about repairing relations with Russia and China. The world has changed vastly since 2020 when Trump ended his last term.
Also Read: Why Trump Won
The world is a very unsafe place to inhabit and the divide between rich and poor is escalating in all countries, both of which make for the deadliest Molotov cocktail. I wish you well, Mr. Trump. The world sorely needs peace, and you can deliver it with some imagination. 
________
Also Read:
Unless India Creates a Military Export Ecosystem, Its Defence Services Are Doomed
Shantanu Basu
Writer is a retired senior civil servant, public policy analyst, author and commentator.
Disclaimer : PunjabTodayNews.com and other platforms of the Punjab Today group strive to include views and opinions from across the entire spectrum, but by no means do we agree with everything we publish. Our efforts and editorial choices consistently underscore our authors’ right to the freedom of speech. However, it should be clear to all readers that individual authors are responsible for the information, ideas or opinions in their articles, and very often, these do not reflect the views of PunjabTodayNews.com or other platforms of the group. Punjab Today does not assume any responsibility or liability for the views of authors whose work appears here.
Punjab Today believes in serious, engaging, narrative journalism at a time when mainstream media houses seem to have given up on long-form writing and news television has blurred or altogether erased the lines between news and slapstick entertainment. We at Punjab Today believe that readers such as yourself appreciate cerebral journalism, and would like you to hold us against the best international industry standards. Brickbats are welcome even more than bouquets, though an occasional pat on the back is always encouraging. Good journalism can be a lifeline in these uncertain times worldwide. You can support us in myriad ways. To begin with, by spreading word about us and forwarding this reportage. Stay engaged.
— Team PT