With deep-rooted mistrust and shifting regional dynamics, India must balance diplomatic engagement with strategic preparedness.
WITH CHINA’S historical tendency to disregard territorial integrity, particularly since the 1962 conflict and the unprovoked aggression of June 15, 2020, India should adopt a cautious stance. Exercising restraint and awaiting full disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction seems prudent. Through new initiatives and people-to-people contact, mutual trust and tranquillity along the contested Line of Actual Control (LAC) may be gradually restored.
Diplomatic experts suggest that while the recent agreement may not completely restore the pre-2020 status quo in Ladakh’s Depsang Plains, Demchok, and other transgressed territories, the stalemate has been broken, which may have broader positive implications for the future. However, uncertainties remain due to China’s authoritarian and expansionist policies.
Experts observe that India’s measured patience, reflected in over 20 corps commander-level discussions and 31 Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) meetings, underscores its diplomatic resolve.
The groundwork for potential diplomatic engagement, possibly through multilateral forums like BRICS, was laid through a key interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. The discourse at BRICS exemplified a significant step in breaking a four-and-a-half-year impasse.
India’s calculated patience in pursuing disengagement reflects a robust diplomatic approach amid China’s expansionist behaviour. While the recent agreement offers a pathway to tentative peace, deep-seated trust issues persist.
For India, the challenge extends beyond military readiness; it involves reducing economic reliance on China, fortifying alliances, and maintaining public unity on national security.
Impact on the U.S. and the West
The China-India agreement aims to reduce border tensions, potentially shifting Asia’s power dynamics. For the U.S. and Western allies, this could complicate efforts to counterbalance China’s influence, as a more stable Sino-Indian relationship may weaken India’s dependence on Western alliances for regional security.
Washington may lose some leverage with India in Quad initiatives and Indo-Pacific strategies, pushing it to recalibrate its approach. Europe and the U.S. might also anticipate subtle but impactful shifts in trade and defence alignments as India diversifies its ties, reducing its reliance on Western support and taking a more independent stance.
Impact on Bilateral Relations and Regional Stability
The agreement provides a foundation for renewed diplomatic dialogue, reducing the likelihood of military missteps along the border. This stability, in turn, benefits the regional security landscape, potentially easing tensions with Pakistan and calming South Asia’s security environment.
With fewer border provocations, India and China may engage more constructively within global forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), adding weight to multilateral discussions on trade, climate, and regional security.
However, deep-rooted mistrust remains. Any perceived breach could reignite tensions, underscoring a fragile peace where neither side fully trusts the other’s commitment to stability.
Challenges in Addressing the Trade Deficit
Even with diplomatic progress, India faces a crucial economic challenge: reducing its dependence on Chinese imports. In 2023, India imported $97.5 billion in goods, particularly machinery, chemicals, and electronics, from China.
Despite efforts to balance this trade, exports to China remain a fraction at $17.5 billion, reflecting an $80 billion deficit. Achieving self-reliance in critical sectors is essential, as India intensifies efforts to establish technological and manufacturing independence from Chinese supply chains.
Strengthened Defence and Infrastructure in India
India has accelerated infrastructure projects along the LAC, enhancing military readiness with new roads, bridges, and airstrips, thereby increasing accessibility to remote areas and bolstering defensive capabilities.
Investments in advanced technology, including drones and radars, further reinforce India’s deterrence strategy. Strategic alliances through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and strengthened ties with neighbouring countries underscore a regional counterweight to China’s influence.
The border tensions have also driven the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative, with India doubling down on self-reliance. Diversifying trade sources, especially for electronics and pharmaceuticals, supports a more resilient economy and reduces vulnerability to Chinese economic policies.
Chinese Media’s Reaction
China’s official media, like Global Times, has downplayed the recent de-escalation, guardedly avoiding specifics while casting India as strategically aligned with the West. Chinese social and print media have expressed measured optimism regarding troop disengagement at key points along the LAC.
Chinese analysts voice concerns about India’s collaboration with the U.S., emphasizing long-term relationship management over immediate border concerns. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, remains silent on specific patrolling or broader policy shifts, instead underscoring the importance of a balanced view on Sino-Indian relations.
In contrast, Indian media highlights the disengagement as a diplomatic success, with some going so far as to herald it as an exceptional achievement of the Modi government, overlooking China’s history of shifting allegiances. Analysts credit India’s strategic manoeuvring, while also noting possible covert Russian influence in encouraging Chinese flexibility to avoid further conflict in South Asia.
Potential Gains for India
For India, the agreement provides an opportunity to stabilize military resources and redirect focus toward broader security concerns.
Domestically, it is a diplomatic victory that bolsters India’s image as a responsible regional power. Peace along the LAC allows India to concentrate on economic recovery post-pandemic, advancing domestic manufacturing initiatives without urgent defence spending spikes.
However, not all domestic sentiment is celebratory. Public concerns over potential concessions may challenge the government’s stance, with critics cautioning against moves that could be perceived as undermining India’s territorial integrity.
Strategic Implications for China
For China, de-escalation allows it to position itself as a stable regional leader, which is crucial as it balances its geopolitical agenda in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and its strained relationship with the U.S. Stability along the LAC aligns with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) objectives, although India remains cautious about the BRI. Economically, a less contentious border with India aids China’s extensive trade interests in the region.
Domestically, however, Chinese leadership may need to manage nationalist views by framing disengagement as a strategic move rather than a concession, given the potential reputational risks.
Public Awareness and National Unity
Heightened border issues have fostered collective consciousness around national security, drawing widespread support for policies that counter Chinese influence, including calls for economic boycotts. This unity reinforces a vigilant culture, aligning public sentiment with strategic defence imperatives.
Lessons from the Standoff
India’s strategic disadvantages, including limited access to certain patrolling points in Ladakh, reflect the operational costs of the prolonged standoff. The engagement has required significant financial and logistical investment, diverting resources from pressing domestic development needs.
Defence spending has risen, impacting fiscal balance at a time when funds are crucial for economic growth and social programs. India’s diplomatic resources have also been stretched, with the need to maintain LAC security impacting broader regional initiatives.
Why China Pursues Aggression Against India
China’s strategic calculus includes consolidating territorial control over Aksai Chin and areas claimed in Arunachal Pradesh, securing a buffer zone along its western borders.
The Xinjiang-Tibet Highway (G219) is integral to Chinese military logistics, offering rapid troop mobilization capabilities.
By keeping India under pressure along the LAC, China asserts its regional dominance and projects power, with “salami-slicing” tactics subtly shifting territorial realities over time.
Beyond the LAC, China seeks to counterbalance India’s growing alliances with Western powers, notably the Quad. Border provocations may remind India to reconsider its alignment, deterring perceived strategic encirclement by Western-aligned nations.
For China, maintaining a semblance of regional stability serves broader geopolitical goals, but its ambitions suggest the LAC will remain a tense zone. True stability hinges on both sides honouring commitments—a standard that history, unfortunately, shows to be tenuous at best. 
K. S. Tomar
The writer, a senior political analyst, is a former Editor of the Hindustan Times' Rajasthan edition and has spent nearly four decades in journalism, including a six year stint in Nepal where he covered Sino-India-Nepal complex relationship and had a ringside seat to the Himalayan Kingdom's transition into democracy.
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