Riyadh seeks a more limited agreement, while Washington aims for a broader security framework
AS THE BIDEN administration prepares to relinquish power next month, it may leave without accomplishing a much-discussed diplomatic goal: the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, accompanied by a formal US security agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The future of a formal US-Saudi security agreement remains uncertain, though the Biden administration appears to be pursuing a pact that would not involve a broader deal with Israel, making concessions toward a Palestinian state.
While the Biden administration may want to expedite the deal so that it is complete before January 20, 2025, Western media reports indicate that Riyadh is now looking for a “more modest” agreement that forgoes normalizing ties with Israel.
Reuters, citing sources, reports that Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) has doubled down on the condition that normalization with Israel must depend on Tel Aviv’s commitment to working toward the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, in line with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still eager to secure normalization with the Saudi powerhouse as a historic milestone and a sign of broader acceptance in the Arab world. However, Netanyahu is treading cautiously, as he knows that any step toward a two-state solution would break apart his ruling coalition, according to sources.
As a result of the Saudi and Israeli positions, “Riyadh and Washington hope a more modest defence pact could be sealed before President Joe Biden leaves the White House in January,” according to Saudi and Western sources.
Earlier this year, numerous reports said Saudi Arabia was seeking a defence pact with Washington to secure access to better US weaponry and a US-backed nuclear program, in exchange for agreeing to normalize ties with Israel.
The Guardian reported in May, however, that the kingdom began pushing for a “more modest” defence pact with the US that foregoes a normalization deal with Israel due to Tel Aviv’s intransigence toward an independent Palestinian state.
US President Joe Biden said last week that the ceasefire in Lebanon brings Washington closer to its vision for a “more integrated” West Asia, referring to the normalization of ties by Arab states with Israel.
“I applaud the courageous decision made by the leaders of Lebanon and Israel to end the violence. It reminds us that peace is possible,” the president added.
The US president went on to say that Washington remains prepared to broker peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia that will include “a credible pathway for establishing a Palestinian state.”
A full-blown US-Saudi treaty would need to pass the US Senate with a two-thirds majority, and this would be a non-starter unless Riyadh recognizes Israel, the sources said.
The pact now under discussion would involve expanding joint military exercises and drills to address regional threats, mainly from Iran. It would foster partnerships between US and Saudi defence firms, with safeguards to prevent collaboration with China, the sources said.
Biden Mbs
The agreement would promote Saudi investment in advanced technologies, especially drone defence. The US would increase its presence in Riyadh through training, logistics, and cybersecurity support, and may deploy a Patriot missile battalion to enhance missile defence and integrated deterrence.
But it would not be the kind of binding mutual defence treaty that would oblige US forces to protect the world’s biggest oil exporter in the event of a foreign attack.
The picture is complicated further by the impending arrival of Donald Trump in the White House. While Trump’s plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict excludes any provisions for Palestinian statehood or sovereignty, he is a close ally of the Saudi crown prince.
Palestinian and some Arab officials worry that Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner—architect of the “Deal of the Century” and also a close ally of the crown prince—may ultimately persuade him to support the plan.
How the prince reconciles Saudi priorities with this shifting diplomatic landscape will be pivotal, defining both his leadership and the future of the peace process, diplomats said.
The current US administration has not yet given up hope for a deal on security guarantees before Biden leaves office in January, but several obstacles remain, one of which is whether there is enough time to strike a deal.
US officials are mindful that the kingdom is still interested in formally cementing the guarantees it has been seeking, especially to gain access to more advanced weapons. However, they are uncertain whether it would prefer to finalize the deal under Biden or wait for Trump, the sources said.
Critics of any such agreement between Saudi Arabia and the US argue that the US has already contributed to a moral hazard by arming the Saudi Arabia-UAE coalition in its initial 2015 Operation Decisive Storm aerial bombing campaign on Yemen, thereby becoming complicit in killing thousands of civilians.
Alex Little, in his opinion piece on the US-based website thehill.com, says that Saudi Arabia faces no threat to its sovereignty, as the Middle East lacks a true regional hegemon. Regional stability is one of Washington’s main rationales in its dealings with Riyadh. Yet Saudi Arabia has been involved in almost every conflict zone and geopolitical fault line throughout the Middle East.
Additionally, weapons given to the Saudis have a history of ending up in adversaries’ hands, including Al Qaeda and Iran. Moreover, corruption and a lack of transparency in Saudi defence institutions remain prevailing problems.
Little further opines that, on top of the mismanagement of military aid, devoting equipment that Saudi Arabia would need to enhance its defence would detract from American interests in higher-priority theatres, namely the Indo-Pacific.
He further states that fears of China replacing the US as a security guarantor in the Middle East are unfounded. China has little to no ability to project power in the Middle East and is highly opposed to military intervention, alliances, and establishing bases.
Another dilemma that MbS faces is how to deal with the internal audience and the so-called Islamic world if he agrees to normalize ties with Israel, as it will definitely impact his standing in the country and the region negatively.
While the Saudi leadership strongly advocates Palestinian statehood, it remains uncertain, according to diplomats, how the crown prince would respond if Trump revives the deal he floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 
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Asad Mirza
The author is a political commentator based in New Delhi. He was also associated with BBC Urdu Service and Khaleej Times of Dubai. He writes on Muslims, educational, international affairs, interfaith and current affairs.
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