Ukraine is constantly asking to ban Russia from the SWIFT but European countries are skeptical to take this step.

Russia has invaded Ukraine and Russian troops have entered the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Russia has also taken over Chernobyl Nuclear Plant. In this scenario, the West has refused to send troops to Ukraine. There are certain dilemmas that the US, EU, and India face. West has been putting some sanctions on Russia but it will not have an immediate impact on Russia.

Ukraine is constantly asking to ban Russia from the SWIFT system as it would have a considerable impact on the Russian Economy but European countries are skeptical to take this step. And India is also doing a tight rope walk as India is finding it difficult to take a robust stand.

AMERICA’s DILEMMA

The question is why America isn’t taking any robust steps. Firstly, Ukraine is not situated in proximity to the US. Although Ukraine has Natural gas and oil reserves still it lacks strategic oil reserves so most probably it is of no interest to America. Because there is a saying, ‘where there is oil, there is the US’. But the US played a major role in aggravating this crisis and now it has left Ukraine in the middle of nowhere.

Secondly, Ukraine is not a member of NATO so the US is not under any obligation to send combat troops to Ukraine. But the irony is that Russia demands a guarantee that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO but NATO refuses to guarantee that too. It raises the question that what does the west wants? Neither it wants to send combat troops to Ukraine nor provides Russia with a guarantee that Ukraine won’t join NATO.

Thirdly, Joe Biden is considered as a president who won’t do a military intervention as he has a non-interventionist hunch. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan can be the latest example. He withdrew troops from Afghanistan after which the country was ripped apart. In the past, he has opposed Obama’s decision to intervene in the Libyan civil war. He also disagreed when Obama decided to increase troops in Afghanistan. Although he had voted for America’s invasion of Iraq (2003) but after that, his hunch is mostly non-interventionist.

Fourthly, America is guided by certain domestic compulsions as Americans don’t want war. 72 % of Americans think that the US should play a minor role in Ukraine Crisis. Today American politics is based on bread-butter issues like rising inflation. Also, the US doesn’t want to open a new conflict zone overseas after Afghanistan. And if the US sends troops, US and Russia will have a direct conflict with Russia.

As president Joe Biden earlier stated that dealing with Russia is not like dealing with a terrorist organization because dealing with Russia implies that America is dealing with one of the largest armies in the world.

EUROPE’s DILEMMA

European Union’s stand is also like US’s stand. German chancellor Olaf Scholz has been constantly criticized for being soft on Russia. France‘s president has his compulsions as there are presidential elections in France in March 2022. Europe is highly dependent on Russia as 33% of the Natural Gas supply is from Russia. Other sources of natural gas are not very secure.

The Maghrib gas pipeline coming from Algeria to Spanish and Portuguese gas grids is very uncertain because of Algeria’s dispute with Morroco. Groningen Gas field in Netherland has also been closed due to danger of the earthquakes. Earlier it was scheduled to be closed in 2030 but now it has been decided to close it eight years earlier before the due date. This shows how important is Russian gas for Europe. Germany has halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline but it still can not oppose Russia in Combat mode.

Leaders of the European Union are also divided on banning Russia from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) payment network. It is based in Belgium and it links 11000 banks and institutions in more than 200 countries. It is an instant messaging system that tells users when payments have been sent and arrived. Approximately 1 % of messages are considered to be related to Russian payments.

Ukraine is constantly asking to ban Russia from the SWIFT payment network. Because it would badly impact the Russian economy. SWIFT provides smooth and instant transactions and Russian companies would lose access to it. Russia would be deprived of payments that it receives from energy and agricultural exports.

The problem is that European countries are also reluctant to take this step. Neither they are responding militarily nor imposing strong economic sanctions. They are only imposing travel bans on Russian Oligarchs, freezing their assets abroad, or imposing weak economic sanctions like imposing sanctions on individual banks and companies.

Banning Russia from SWIFT can turn disastrous for Russia but European countries are divided over the issue. One of the reasons is the one I cited above. Russia is the major provider of natural gas to Europe. With other sources of energy being insecure, it is difficult for Europe to find alternative supplies of natural gas. Because banning Russia from SWIFT will most probably hit Russia hard but it will also hard hit the countries who are major trading partners of Russia. So the economies of the other countries will also be impacted. So this may result in chaos. Experts say that cutting off Russia from the SWIFT system might shrink Russia’s economy by five percent.

INDIA’s DILEMMA

India too is doing funambulism in this crisis as it has not been able to take a proper stand. There are certain dilemmas that India faces. Recently Pakistani PM Imran Khan visited Russia. It seems that Russia wants to maintain its relations with Pakistan, as it would solve two purposes. Because there is a Pakistan-backed Taliban government in Afghanistan that is it will look after Russia’s interest in Afghanistan and it will also deter India from making cordial relations with the US, especially in context to QUAD.

Secondly, India should ponder over the thought that in case of Chinese aggression in the future will the US turn up for help to India or it will leave India as it did with Ukraine? QUAD is a tool that the US uses to counter China’s influence in Indo- the Pacific. But if China acts aggressively against India, will the US provide robust support to India?

India is in an extremely difficult situation because of its strained relations with Pakistan and China. India should analyze that will the over cordial relationship with the US would suit its interest or not? The same should be a food for thought for Taiwan. Incase China invades Taiwan, will the US help Taiwan or turn its back?

These were some dilemmas that the US, EU, and India are facing.

America is guided by certain domestic compulsions. But the point is that America has played a considerable role in aggravating this crisis and now when Russia has invaded Ukraine, the West has left Ukraine in the middle of nowhere.

France and Germany want talks in Normandy format but that doesn’t seem to be happening in near future.

This crisis is also a signal for India to think over that is it good for India to make relations with the US over cordial in such a situation? Or is it better to start building robust relations with immediate neighbors that are, Pakistan and China?

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