As the second phase of polling concludes, a clear narrative emerges: anti-incumbent sentiment against Modi is on the rise. 

DURING THE SECOND phase of elections, a notable incident occurred where IPS officers, reportedly from a certain state, circulated false messages on WhatsApp groups claiming that 40% of Muslims in their area had already voted by noon, urging Hindu voters to follow suit.

This misinformation was brought to light by a UP-based channel at 4 PM, prompting screenshots to be sent to the Election Commission (EC). However, the EC chose not to take action on this matter.

Analysts, particularly those associated with certain media outlets, seem to be concealing the true ground reality by misrepresenting polling percentages.

Rather than analyzing the data objectively, they are seemingly avoiding any interpretation that may be unfavorable to the current administration.

This reluctance to delve deeper suggests an underlying discomfort with the emerging narrative, which increasingly points towards a sense of voter fatigue with Modi’s leadership.

Independent journalists, such as Shravan Garg and others, are taking a more daring approach by presenting their predictions based on the available data. They pay close attention to the evolving rhetoric of politicians, observing shifts in their speeches in response to feedback.

Their analysis suggests a growing sentiment of anti-incumbency among the populace, indicating a weariness with Modi and his policies.

While it may not yet pose a threat to Modi’s tenure as Prime Minister, this anti-incumbent sentiment appears to be significantly weakening his position. One notable incident illustrating this trend was Modi’s expressed satisfaction with the Supreme Court’s decision to reject 100% VVPAT verification, seemingly implying that this decision ensures his victory.

In what seems to be a recurring pattern, areas traditionally dominated by the BJP, such as Bengaluru, witnessed a relatively low voter turnout, raising concerns among analysts.

While pro-government media outlets remain cautious in their assessment, more liberal journalists argue that the lack of enthusiasm among BJP voters contrasts sharply with the motivation seen among opposition supporters. This could potentially lead to unexpected electoral outcomes or a notable decline in BJP’s winning margins.

Recent statements by Modi, Shah, and Tejaswi Surya, characterized by a tone of apprehension, stand in stark contrast to Rahul Gandhi’s confident speeches.

Gandhi’s assurance of Modi’s fear and vulnerability appears to be rooted in the observations of poll observers and polling percentages, indicating a higher turnout in constituencies dominated by opposition parties, minority groups, and economically disadvantaged communities, compared to areas predominantly supportive of the BJP.

The absence of robust community outreach efforts by the BJP in this election cycle has not gone unnoticed. Modi’s recent visit to Nagpur, after a decade-long hiatus, underscores the party’s recognition of growing anti-incumbency sentiments and the need to rally Hindu support, potentially through the RSS.

Reports from polling booths, corroborated by IPS officers’ messages on WhatsApp groups urging Hindu voters to participate, suggest a visible presence of opposition voters compared to BJP supporters. This sentiment was echoed by analysts across various media platforms, alluding to a palpable shift in the electoral landscape.

Also Read: How Much Will Change After June 4th Election Results?

In a recent speech, Rahul Gandhi and then several analysts from various media outlets, including 4 PM, Satya Hindu, and Ajit Anjum, unanimously predicted one outcome for Modi: a visible display of vulnerability and desperation in his rallies, indicating the mounting pressure and uncertainty surrounding his electoral prospects.

They said: “Modi will now start crying in his rallies”.

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