Why Pilot could not take off?

The Rajasthan crisis was waiting to happen for the Congress and its leadership failed to gauge the gravity of the developing of the situation for the past year or so. The tough but belated aggressive action of the Congress saved the day for the Gehlot government.

Or else, it could have gone the way Kamal Nath was ousted as CM from Madhya Pradesh. If Jyotiraditya Scindia was the Trojan Horse then, this time a ‘fellow dynast’ in Sachin Pilot appeared to take inspiration from his colleague from Congress days and bring down his “boss” Ashok Gehlot with a little help from the BJP.

BJP’s ‘silent operation’ was being directed from a five star hotel at Manesar located in BJP-ruled Haryana, but it failed to give the desired result.

Gehlot government has survived for the moment but Sachin Pilot’s revolt puts a question mark on the smooth functioning and weaken as dissatisfied MLAs will perpetually ask for more.

What the full blown war inside party in Rajasthan has brought out is the fact that the Congress High Command had no crisis management strategy in place. And this in a state where battle between the two threatened government formation in the first place in 2018.

It is the political acumen and alertness of Gehlot that saved him from a collapse, a few weeks ago at the time of Rajya Sabha elections itself. The Chief Minister had sealed the state borders and prevented foul play from political adversaries.

Inordinate delays in tackling discontentment among state leaders cost the Congress its governments in Goa, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and North Eastern states.

Rajasthan too was nearly gone, given the ‘revolt by an angry young man in a hurry’ which the BJP effectively exploited, opine analysts.

But here it was facing the wily old fox in Gehlot. Also, within no time reinforcements from the High Command reached Jaipur to save the government.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP had openly wooed Jyotiraditya Scindia, smarting under after being sidelined by Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh, but in Rajasthan were a bit cautious and remained in the background, waiting for Pilot to do the needful –  bring in required number of MLAs.

While Scindia could walk over to the BJP with his supporters, the BJP was unsure of support enjoyed by Pilot and eventually he fell short of the required numbers – of 30.

While Scindia had family influence among MLAs, something that Pilot clearly did not and he found it the hard way that most of the MLAs owe their allegiance to Gehlot. At least four MLAs escaped from Manesar hotel and joined the Gehlot camp and announced a press conference pledging support to Gehlot.

More important, former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, is not in the picture in this operation Lotus unlike in Madhya Pradesh where Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan was leading the operation. Not exactly a favourite of Modi-Shah combine, Vasundhara Raje has been kept away and RSS backed Gulab Chand Kataria  is the leader of opposition in the house.

Though the BJP fished in troubled waters, it was Pilot’s unadulterated hate and anger against Gehlot that he wanted to bring down the government, even if it meant harming the Congress, something that Gehlot never tires of mentioning, rubbishing his former deputy.

Gehlot successfully painted Pilot as the villain and seemingly frustrating all moves of the high command to somehow keep Pilot in the party fold.

Options for Pilot appear narrow at this point of time. He cannot join the BJP as it may not need him minus the numbers and floating a regional party is not a terribly bright prospect, given the fate of previous leaders who formed regional parties.

In Rajasthan, a third front never worked. Examples like Janta Party floated by Kisanon Ka Mesiha, Chaudhry Kumbharam Arya against former CM, Mohan lal Sukhadia and Janta Dal Digvijai against CM Bhairon Singh Shekhawat after Babri Masjid demolition are abound.

And so did others fail to make any impression like Dr Kirori lal Meena, Ghanshayam Tewari, Hanuman Beniwal, RLD etc or even regional parties like BSP, SP, CPM etc could not make any political impact which leaves little scope for optimism of relevance of floating new party by Pilot.

Moreover, the BJP may not be keen to embrace Pilot’s party that can split votes of OBC. BJP has got its hold amongst the upper castes and OBCs etc whereas Gurjers as well as Meenas had supported Congress in 2018 assembly elections.

Keeping in view the castes equation in Desert State, Meenas (tribals) and Gurjers do not see eye to eye each other hence Pilot can expect support of latter whereas former may opt for the BJP or the Congress.

For the present, the battle royale in Rajasthan is in the court, where Pilot and his men are fighting what they call Speaker’s move aimed at their eventual disqualification. Rajasthan Speaker CP Joshi sent a notice for disqualification for anti-party activities to Pilot and 18 Congress MLAs, who kept selves lodged in a hotel in Haryana.

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