In a reflective analysis of India’s political landscape, an insightful commentary forecasts a shift reminiscent of the later Mughal era.

FROM ALL ACCOUNTS and estimates we are receiving from social media and other sources (though one has to wait until 4th June when the results of the ongoing Indian parliamentary elections will be finally announced), the seats of the ruling BJP in the Lok Sabha (the lower, and more powerful, House in the Indian Parliament) will be considerably reduced.

Presently, the BJP has on its own 303 seats in the 545-member House, and the NDA, the coalition it leads, has 353, which gives the BJP a comfortable majority. Narendra Modi has been the absolute ruler in his government, and other Ministers were merely his minions.

All this is likely to change after 4th June. My estimate is that the BJP’s seats will be reduced by about 100, giving it 200-210 seats, and the NDA about 240-245. This is well below the halfway mark of 273 seats needed for a majority in the House.

The opposition alliance, known as INDIA, may also have approximately the same number.

Hence either a Modi-led coalition with some independents, or a Rahul Gandhi (the leader of the Congress party)-led coalition, will come to power and form the central government hereafter, by cobbling together a coalition with some independent candidates and buying over some others.

In either case, it will be a loose, weak alliance. Even if Modi forms the government again, he will not be the same Modi as we have seen for the last 10 years when he became practically a dictator, and rode roughshod over all opposition, with his absolute majority.

Modi will be a shadow of what he was until now, a very weak leader often making all kinds of improper compromises to please his coalition partners.

Many people, including this humble self, are very happy that Modi, as we knew him until now, is going, or being reduced to a shadow of what he has been until now. The man has in his 10-year term as Prime Minister, wreaked havoc all over the country by his policies of religious polarization and atrocities against minorities in India, and his economic ‘trickle-down’ theory.

But what is coming in his stead in India?

I submit that bad days are coming for India, and we will be entering the era of the later Mughals. The last strong Mughal Emperor in India was Aurangzeb, who died in 1707.

The Emperors thereafter were known as the later Mughals, who ruled until 1857 when the last Mughal Emperor Bahadur Shah Zafar was deposed by the British. These later Mughals were Emperors only in name, and in fact, they had lost their Empire, ruling only over Delhi and its vicinity.

The erstwhile Mughal governors and generals declared themselves independent rulers, like the Nizam of Hyderabad Asaf Jah, the Nawab of Avadh Saadat Ali Khan, and the Nawab of Bengal, Murshid Quli Khan. The Syed brothers, who were powerful nobles, became kingmakers after Aurangzeb’s death, and often deposed and installed Emperors of their choice.

Chaotic conditions prevailed in India in the era of the later Mughals, with criminal bands like pindaris and thugs roaming the land, looting the people, and wreaking havoc with impunity.

Similarly, the era which is coming in India will witness weak central governments, with constant infighting between the coalition partners, as it happened under the Janta Party rule in 1977-79, formed after the Emergency.

The real power will be in the hands of regional satraps, the state chief ministers, who will be toppling and installing the central government, like the Syed brothers. These regional satraps will have no interest in the people’s welfare, but will only be interested in retaining their power by hook or crook.

Consequently, poverty, unemployment, hunger, the rise in prices, lack of healthcare, etc., will increase, and continue for a long time (maybe 10-15 years), until by a historical united people’s struggle, a strong central government is established under modern-minded leaders determined to rapidly modernize and industrialize India, and give the people decent lives.

One shudders to think of what is coming in India in the near future.

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