In the aftermath of the 2024 Indian general elections, the political landscape witnessed a resurgence of the Congress party in the Hindi heartland, signaling a shift in the electoral dynamics. Despite the BJP’s advances in southern territories, Prime Minister Modi faces the formidable task of navigating a coalition government amidst a reduced parliamentary mandate for his party.

ACCORDING TO George Bernard Shaw, an Irish playwright, critic, polemicist, and political activist, “the reasonable man adapts himself; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

If any politician ignores the woes of common people and ground realities, it amounts to a politically suicidal act.

Underestimating Indian voters, regardless of background, can lead to unimaginable reprisals, as witnessed after Indira Gandhi’s black regime of emergency, Vajpayee government’s ‘Shining India’ campaign in 2004, and now, a repeat in the 2024 elections during Modi’s era.

The evidence of this retaliation is apparent. India’s voters, even the illiterate ones, are more sensible and mature than the politicians who attempt to deceive them. In the end, the voters will have the last laugh, as demonstrated by the results of the 2024 polls declared on June 4.

The 2024 parliamentary polls have proved to be a boon for the Congress party, signaling a new era of revival in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, etc.

This revival is being attributed to the BJP’s divisive nature of campaigning and focus on Hindutva, thereby ignoring the woes of farmers, rural distress, issues of common people, unemployment among youths, skyrocketing prices, etc.

What Went Wrong With The BJP Strategy?

Political observers believe that the slogan ‘Char Sau Paar’ served a dual purpose that failed to yield positive results.

First, BJP aimed to demoralize the struggling opposition.

Second, it sought to convince people of the certainty of NDA’s return to power, creating an impression that the election was a done deal.

However, it proved counterproductive as the INDIA bloc seized upon this magnified figure, using it to create fear among SC, OBC, and ST communities about Modi’s intentions to scrap their reservations by amending the constitution.

Modi and the entire BJP found themselves on the defensive, failing to dispel doubts in the minds of these caste groups.

During the campaign, Modi and BJP leaders focused on illogical ideas, including claims that if the opposition came to power, the Ram temple would be bulldozed, Mangalsutras would be snatched from women, wealth would be distributed among Muslims, and infiltrators would pose a danger to society.

These seemed like panic reactions after the decline in polling percentage during the first phase of polling, along with a desperate attempt to polarize voters by appealing to Hindus. However, these efforts fell flat.

Reports suggest that RSS involvement in pushing for BJP’s victory is being debated, though nothing is confirmed. Some critics claim that RSS recommendations for ticket allotment were disregarded, keeping them away from aggressive electioneering.

However, BJP’s Southward Journey Was Successful

Modi, dubbed as the leader of the Hindi heartland, worked hard to break this jinx, and the results show the expansion of his party’s base. After losing Karnataka in the assembly polls, BJP bounced back, benefiting from an alliance with TDP in Andhra Pradesh.

Dip In Modi’s Personal Popularity

To Modi’s credit, he achieved a hat trick from Varanasi, but it was a bittersweet gift as his vote share decreased. In 2019, PM Modi secured the seat with a margin of 6,74,664 (63.62%) votes, polling 5,81,022 (57.37%) votes in 2014, which dipped to 6,12,970 votes (54.24%) in 2024, a difference of 9.38%. BJP won 303 seats in 2019, reduced to a mere 240 in 2024.

Modi’s Achievement of A Third Term as PM

Jawaharlal Nehru’s Indian National Congress achieved a similar remarkable victory, securing 44.7% of the vote and winning 361 out of 494 seats in 1962.

In contrast, the BJP, under Narendra Modi, won 238 seats out of 543, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) collectively securing 294 seats. Unlike the BJP, which relies on coalition partners like the TDP and others, Congress under Nehru stood strong on its own, as other parties were non-existent at that time.

This feat is unique, witnessed also in Britain, where leaders like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair managed to secure three terms. However, managing a coalition government with a thin majority presents its own challenges. The reduced strength of the BJP can increase the bargaining power of smaller coalition partners, complicating governance and policy implementation.

Unequal Playing Field

INDIA Alliance partners seem elated over the response of voters, shattering BJP’s overconfidence, which preferred to ignore common people’s grievances but focused on Hindutva and negative campaigns to denigrate the opposition.

BJP, equipped with vast resources, disciplined party cadres, and investigating agencies, jailed two chief ministers, including Kejriwal and Jharkhand CM Hement Siren. The Congress party’s funds were frozen by the income tax department, affecting its campaign.

Revival of Congress

The Congress party’s decision to go alone in Punjab yielded fruitful results as anti-incumbency factors jolted the Aam Aadmi Party. Similarly, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee rejected any alliance with Congress and communists, positioning herself advantageously in West Bengal, directly affecting the saffron party’s performance.

Congress won six seats in Uttar Pradesh, reviving party cadres, which have seen continuous decline in fortunes.

Akhilesh Yadav emerged as a ‘Super Hero’ meticulously executing social engineering by prioritizing non-Yadav candidates and allocating 17 tickets to Dalits and only 5 to Yadavs. BJP’s ‘Chanakya’ Amit Shah’s domain was perfectly executed by Akhilesh, chief of the Samajwadi Party, benefiting Congress as well.

The ‘Duo’ of Akhilesh-Rahul emerged victorious, despite BJP’s ridicule based on their earlier failed attempt during the 2018 assembly polls. BJP attempted to neutralize the anti-incumbency factor through the Ram temple issue, but in vain, as its two-time winner from Faizabad, Lallu Singh, lost to SP’s Avadhdesh Prasad, polling 48.6%.

Arun Govil, famous for his role in Ramayana, sailed through to victory from the Meerut Lok Sabha seat, narrowly defeating the SP candidate by a margin of just 10,585 votes.

Yogi’s ‘Bulldozer Raj’ alienated Muslims, and overconfidence in Modi’s ‘charisma’ failed to deliver the desired result. Yogi’s ambition to position himself as a prime ministerial candidate after Modi also received a setback.

Horrifying Role of TV Channels And Print Media, Except A Few Papers

After 40 years in the profession, it’s painful to expose the disturbing truth about the majority of TV channels (Hindi and English) and newspapers (national and regional), except a few like The Telegraph, Deccan Herald, The Hindu, Indian Express, and The Tribune.

However, someone like me has to do this dirty task to expose such a tendency during the 2024 polls, which is not good for democracy.

It’s beyond imagination to understand the logic of some anchors (presumably with the approval of proprietors and editors) who sold the bombastic idea of BJP’s “Char Sau Paar,” which was punctured by mature voters of this great country.

The shouting anchors did more than even BJP leaders to convince that BJP might cross 370 seats and NDA was bound to cross the 400 mark. Similarly, exit polls went one step further and predicted seats matching BJP’s projection.

A micro-level scrutiny revealed that almost all exit polls followed a uniform pattern, as if they were sponsored and prepared by vested interests, though owners of these agencies vehemently denied it. It was amusing to see the depressed, morose, and sullen faces of some editors and anchors of committed national TV channels, giving the impression that they had lost the election.

The new regime must take steps to inject confidence and security among journalists, as India’s ranking in the 2023 World Press Freedom Index slipped from 161 to 180, as revealed in a report by Global Media Watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The ruling dispensation outrightly rejected it, dubbing it ‘biased and baseless.’

Freedom of expression is directly proportional to fearless reporting by journalists, and the NDA government must instill in them a sense of protection and safety.

Challenges Before The New Government

Modi will face the biggest challenge of his political career in managing coalition partners, as the Telugu Desam Party headed by Chander Babu Naidu and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar have emerged as ‘King Makers,’ who may demand concessions.

BJP, with reduced strength, will depend on the TDP and JD(U), enhancing their bargaining power, potentially forcing Modi to change his style of functioning. Experts suggest Modi is known for surprises and may pass this litmus test to ensure the survival of a fragile coalition not based on ideology.

Vajpayee was a moderate and acceptable leader, facing no problems running a coalition government.

Similarly, Ex-PM Manmohan Singh had smooth sailing during UPA1 but remained a silent spectator to scams, leading to the Congress’s complete rout in 2014. Unlike UPA2, Modi may not tolerate any corruption by alliance partners and party leaders in the cabinet.

BJP never gave weightage to its partners during its ten-year tenure, and even the election focused on the Modi brand. The changed scenario will demand more respect and proper weightage to partners.

Additionally, the showdown in parliament will be different, with INDIA partners having a strong contingent of 234 to counter BJP’s dominance, necessitating a strategy for smooth Lok Sabha operations.

Furthermore, the new government will have to address concerns over the Agniveer Scheme, especially as several retired generals question its long-term utility to the army. Discussion with the opposition and retired army generals may be necessary to amend its parameters.

Economists warn against considering more freebies, which may unsettle the economy, and the government must deal with America’s threat of imposing sanctions if India does not withdraw from Iran’s Chabahar port deal.

Upholding the ideals of “One Nation, One Election” or a Uniform Civil Code may face opposition, testing Modi’s popularity once again during the ensuing assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand by the year’s end.

BJP’s experiment of splitting Thkarey and Pawar’s parties in Maharashtra has backfired, necessitating a miraculous solution to salvage its prestige.

Defective Foreign Policy

Modi government’s foreign policy has alienated neighbors like Maldives and Nepal, necessitating a ‘Relook,’ as they drift towards China, using them to expand its influence in the region. Regarding Pakistan, India should respond to its initiative for trade ties by keeping political issues aside.

China’s expanding ties in the region are evident, and India needs to tread cautiously to counter its influence, as seen in Nepal’s case. Nepal’s political shift towards a communist government ideologically aligned with China is concerning, given China’s “Debt Trap” strategy. Pakistan serves as an example, with China extending massive debt, highlighting the risks of falling into a debt trap.

In conclusion, Modi will govern the nation for the next five years with a weakened party and leadership position, but he has shown resolve to continue economic reforms to make India a global power. In this complex scenario, the opposition is expected to play a constructive role, beneficial for the country’s people.

Experts suggest Modi must reassure minorities, especially Muslims, that campaign utterances will be forgotten, and BJP’s slogan, “Sab Ka Vikas, Sab Ka Saath,” will be sincerely implemented to preserve the spirit of the constitution and maintain brotherhood in society.

Tailpiece. It is rare in history for both the ruling party and the opposition to celebrate an election outcome. However, this occurred after the 2024 general elections in India. Both the BJP and Congress expressed elation over their respective victories. Although the BJP fell short of the majority mark of 272 seats, it is poised to form the NDA government with the support of its allies. Meanwhile, the Congress doubled its seat count, signaling a significant revival for the party and justifying their celebrations.

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