“Mama ne patak diya, mama ne patak diya”

The Indian parliamentary elections 2024 will be held in 7 phases, the first one starting today, 19th April, the result to be declared on 4th June.

In all, 102 seats spread over 21 states will go to the polls today, 19th April, marking the beginning of an election which will have an impact on India’s future. By today evening most of the parties will have a fair idea about which way the wind is blowing, allowing them to adjust their campaigns for the remaining six phases.

Both the BJP and the main opposition party, the Congress, have issued their own Manifestos making all kind of tall promises, unlikely to be ever kept.

The BJP Manifesto, called ‘Modi ki Guarantee’, seeks to scale up existing schemes, ensuring that they reach everyone, and promises a Uniform Civil Code and ‘One nation, One election’ law. The Congress manifesto has 25 guarantees promising employment, cash transfers, and increased wages.

Today’s voting will decide the future of some of the high-profile candidates, including Union ministers Nitin Gadkari and Bhupendra Yadav, Tamil Nadu BJP chief K. Annamalai, Nakul Nath, former Telangana governor Tamilisai Soundararajan, Sarbananda Sonowal, Sanjeev Balyan, Jitin Prasada, and Gaurav Gogoi.

Uttar Pradesh is the biggest and most important state in India, having 80 of the 543 parliamentary seats. The contest here is between the ‘trishanku’—the BJP, SP, and the BSP—all vying for dominance.

The seats that will go to polls in the state are Saharanpur, Moradabad, Kairana, Rampur, Bijnor Muzaffarnagar, Pilibhit and Nagina. These seats are spread across nine districts in the state. The BJP’s tie-up with Jayant Chaudhary-led RLP will be tested in the region which has a lot of farmers and Jat voters.

Among the 102 seats for which voting is taking place today are all the seats in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Puducherry, Mizoram, Sikkim, Nagaland and Lakshadweep. Some seats in UP, Bihar and West Bengal will also go to the polls on 19th April.

Earlier, the BJP was confident of winning, and indeed increasing its tally over the 2019 election results of 303 seats ( many BJP leaders had in fact declared that their party will get over 400 seats out of the total of 543 for which elections are being held ).

Now the tone has changed. Many people have forecast that the BJP’s seats will be considerably reduced, and some have even predicted it may lose.

Parakala Prabhakar, an eminent Indian economist, and Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s husband, has said that Modi’s government has been a total failure, and his return to power will be a disaster.

What will happen if BJP loses the election and a coalition of anti-BJP parties secure a majority in the Lok Sabha and form the government?

This reminds me of an amusing story:

In a certain village a dwarf living there wanted to see a ‘dangal’ (wrestling match). However, he could not see it as the wrestling ‘akhaada’ (a square arena) was surrounded on all sides by the villagers who were watching it.

So he shouted “Mama ne patak diya, mama ne patak diya” (My uncle has floored his opponent). At that time the wrestler X had thrown down his opponent Y.

On hearing the shout of the dwarf, the spectators allowed him to come in front of the akhaada so that he could see his mama (maternal uncle) in action. But by that time Y had applied some wrestling technique and had floored X, and was on top of him.

The dwarf then shouted “Yahi hai mera mama, yahi hai mera mama”

Most media people, businessmen, and foreign governments are like that dwarf. Till now many were singing Modi’s praise, calling him India’s saviour and what not.

Most of the Indian media, which became known as ‘godi media’, had prostrated itself before the man with the 56” chest just as they had prostrated themselves before Indira Gandhi during the Emergency of 1975-76.

Western nations, which had earlier denied a visa to Modi because of the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat in 2002, suddenly started welcoming him.

Now everything will change again if BJP loses in these elections. Then everyone will start singing a different tune.

I am reminded of a ghazal of the famous Urdu poet Akbar Allahabadi :

”Khabar deti hai tehreek-e-hawa tabdeel-e-mausam ki
Khilenge aur hi gul, zamzame bulbul ke kam honge
Badal jaayega meyaar-e-sharaafat chashm-e-duniya mein
Zyaada the jo apne zom mein woh sab se kam honge
Ghuzishta azmaton ke taskare bhi na reh jaayenge
Kitaabon mein hi dafn afsaan-e-jaaho hasham honge
Kisi ko is taghayyur ka na his hoga na gham hoga
Hue jis saaz se paida usi ke zeyro bam honge
Tumhe is inqilaab-e-deher ka kya gham hai ai Akbar ?
 Bahut nazdeek hain woh din ki tum hoge na hum honge”

__________

Also Read:

Hai, Modi kitna bura hai! (Agreed. But…)

Three New Criminal Laws – Some Flaws That Are Prone To Gross Misuse And Abuse

The effect of religious polarisation in India 

Congress – Where is it heading? 

Kejriwal and Hitler – The Striking Resemblances

A great judgment by the Indian Supreme Court 

Shilanyas was a mistake, but Rajiv was not aware of unlocking Babri

ਉੱਲੂ ਨੇਤਾ ਅਤੇ ਭੇਡਮਈ ਵੋਟ