The government must expedite conduct of national census without any further delay to help a wide range of policy decisions and resource allocation processes.

India has been undertaking census operations every ten years since 1881 without any break till now. However the census operations which were to take place in 2021 were postponed due to Covid pandemic and are yet to take place.

With the pandemic way behind us, there is no justification in not holding the census till now even as we have had elections in several states including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Maharashtra while five states including Karnataka are going for elections this year.

The national census is an important tool for gathering information about the demographic, social, and economic characteristics of the population. It helps in planning and allocation of resources for various programmes like health, education, housing, transportation, literacy rates, sex ratio and provision of basic amenities.

The census data helps in redeploying resources and in understanding the changing trends in the society. It is also used for delimitation of constituencies for electoral process and providing representation to all categories. In fact there are so many benefits of holding census that all these can’t be enumerated in this article.

So why is the government fighting shy in ordering a full fledged census? Is it afraid that some of the narrative it has built up would be exposed by facts and figures? Has it been making tall claims about basic amenities and developmental projects which might be countered by the figures emerging from a census?

By all accounts so far, the census operations are not likely to begin before July this year and it normally takes a year for the collection and analysis of the massive data that is collected. This would mean that the figures would emerge only after the crucial Lok Sabha elections next year.

Some of the significant areas from which the data would be keenly watched would be the pattern of population growth, literacy figures among different sections of society, economic status among communities and regions, parameters on health and education across the country, reach of schemes including Beti Padhao Beti Bachao, MANREGA, direct benefits and several other schemes.

The 2011 census showed that the sex ratio had improved from 933 in 2001 to 940 in 2011. It was still much less than the ideal and therefore there would be tremendous interest in finding the current ratio. Similarly the overall literacy rate was 74.04 per cent with the male literacy rate at 82.14 per cent and the female literacy rate at 65.46 per cent.

Another figure which would be keenly watched would be the growth of population among various communities. It is common myth created by the right wing activists that the population of Muslims is riding rapidly and might over take that of the Hindus.

The fact is that Hindus comprised 79.8 per cent of the population while the Muslim population was counted at 14.2 per cent as per 2011 census.

Accordingly to a survey in 2015, fertility rates across all groups had fallen with Muslims experiencing the most significant decline, from an average of 4.4 children per woman in 1992 to an average of 2.6 in 2015.

During the same period the figure for Hindu women fell to 2.1. This decline in the growth rate of the Muslim population can be attributed to factors such as increasing literacy rates, access to healthcare, and family planning services.

As per the report of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21, indicating the significant progress of population with birth control measures. It would be interesting to find how it has worked among communities and for compiling such data, it is important to hold a nation wide census because surveys can some time be misleading.

Similarly it is vital to collect data on population sizes of various groups. It is widely believed that the government may want to hold back enumerating the population size of Other Backward Castes (OBCs) who are likely to play a major role in the ensuing elections.

The census figures would also lay bare the claims of the government during its 10 year rule in various fields like human development and access to amenities which might conflict with the census data.

Also Read: Caste Based Census Should Become a Reality

It is important for the government as well as the nation to get the exact numbers and trends for future planning and to bust certain myths which are eating into the vitals of the society. The government must expedite conduct of national census without any further delay to help a wide range of policy decisions and resource allocation processes.

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