Apart from other things, communal incidents may be engineered as the elections draw near, which will benefit the BJP.

All eyes are now fixed on the February 2022 UP Assembly elections, which are perceived as the semi finals to the 2024 parliamentary elections.

In my opinion the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is sure to get a majority, though it will be reduced since Jats of western UP, who had in 2017 voted for the BJP, have become unhappy with it as shown in the ongoing farmers agitation.

In the 2017 state assembly elections, out of the 403 seats, BJP won a massive 312, Samajwadi Party (SP) won 47, Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) won 19, and Congress only 7.

So even if in 2022 the BJP loses some seats in Western UP, it is still certain of getting a comfortable majority.

The only thing which can change the situation is if SP and BSP form an alliance.

In the 2017 UP assembly elections BJP got 39.67% votes, SP got 21.82%, BSP got 22.3% and Congress got 6.25%. So the big players in UP are BJP, SP and BSP.

Now if SP and BSP unite the vote of the alliance will be over 44%, which is clearly a winning figure. But, as sought to be proved here, they can never unite, and the beneficiary will be the BJP. The SP-BSP alliance of 1996 proved short lived.

SP is broadly a party representing the Yadavas and some other OBCs (other backward castes). On the other hand, BSP represents the dalits (Scheduled Castes or SCs).

Before Independence, there was a zamindari system in UP (and other states). The zamindars were upper caste Hindus, and some Muslims, while Yadavas, Kurmis and other OBCs were their tenants.

When zamindari was abolished by the UP Zamindari Abolition Act, 1950 the zamindars lost title to most of their lands, and the Yadavas and other OBCs became bhumidhars (technically tenants of the state which became the owner, but for all practical purposes the owners of the lands).

So the situation today is that in rural UP the Yadavas and other OBCs are owners of the land, while dalits are their tenants or licencees.

Often the dalits are oppressed by the OBCs, as the latter are the masters while the former are their servants. Thus there is a direct social contradiction in their interests. How can the oppressor and oppressed become allies?

Recent statements of the BSP leader, Mayawati, who spoke of going alone bear this out.

Apart from the above, communal incidents may be engineered as the elections draw near, which will benefit the BJP. Also, the Central and state governments are both under the BJP, which is bound to use the state machinery in its favour.

Kautilya has taught our political leaders that ‘saam, daam, dand, bhed’ are all justified in elections. All is fair in love and war, and politics is a kind of war.

So the victory of the BJP seems certain.

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