Iranian leaders are now convinced that there is no future whatsoever in terms of promoting ties with the Americans, regardless of who is in the White House.

TALMIZ AHMED is an Indian diplomat who has served as the Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE. He was Additional Secretary for International Cooperation in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas and also served as the Director General of the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. He has been posted in several West Asian countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, and Yemen, and between 1987-90, he was Consul General in Jeddah.

Additionally, he held positions in the Indian missions in New York, London, and Pretoria. He is the author of “Reform in the Arab World: External Influences and Regional Debates” (2005), “Children of Abraham at War: The Clash of Messianic Militarisms” (2010), and “The Islamist Challenge in West Asia: Doctrinal and Political Competitions after the Arab Spring” (2013).

In an interview with MOHD NAUSHAD KHAN, he said, “The Palestinian question has now become central to West Asian politics, but the Israelis and the Americans argue that the principal concern in the region is the threat from Iran rather than the resolution of the Palestinian issue.”

What is your assessment of the current situation in the Middle East, particularly in light of the recent conflict between Iran and Israel? How do you perceive the potential for a broader conflict in the region?

The situation in the region is extremely dangerous for the following reasons: Firstly, Netanyahu has begun an assault on Rafah. One and a half million Palestinians who are displaced from different parts of Gaza have taken refuge there. There is a high likelihood that this attack will result in thousands of new casualties among the Palestinians.

Secondly, the problems between the axis of resistance led by Iran and Israel have not been resolved. The axis of resistance has become the principal external challenge to Israel, and it remains to be seen whether Israel will escalate confrontation with Hezbollah, the militia in Iraq, the Houthis, or possibly with Iran directly.

Thirdly, the United States President shows no capacity whatsoever to control Netanyahu’s warlike and murderous instincts. Therefore, after meeting Netanyahu, he has convinced himself that he has a free hand, and the United States has not yet curtailed any military supplies to Israel. Thus, despite whatever the president may say, we can see that the US support for Israel’s agenda in the region, which includes extraordinary use of violence against the civilian population of Gaza, has not been controlled or restricted by the Americans at any point.

What is your opinion on the international community’s response to the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel? How can diplomatic channels be effectively utilized to address the underlying issues and prevent a wider conflict?

The international community, possibly for the first time in several years, has unitedly spoken out against the violence and murder conducted by Israel across Gaza and even in the West Bank. We have never seen such a spectacle before, where thousands of young people in different American campuses are now coming out onto the streets and calling for an end to hostilities. A very large number of young Jewish people have also joined these demonstrations. The war has also encouraged certain American politicians to come out in public and speak against Israeli violence in Gaza.

In particular, I note that Bernie Sanders has spoken very strongly on television against Netanyahu. When Netanyahu called all the demonstrations against Israel in the US anti-Semitic, Bernie Sanders said that it is a shameful act on the part of the Israeli Prime Minister to label people demonstrating against violence as anti-Semitic.

Overall, there has been an extraordinary surge of support for the Palestinian people, and now, for the first time, we see even the US president talking about a two-state solution in public. Regarding diplomatic efforts, as far as Israel is concerned, there is only one entity in the world that carries any influence in Tel Aviv, and that is the US president. Sadly, we have seen that despite many of his remarks in public calling for an immediate ceasefire and increased humanitarian assistance, in practice, there is nothing to control or restrict Netanyahu’s warlike instincts. Netanyahu is complacent in the belief that the United States President does not have either the courage or the capacity to prevent the support that the American military industry is giving to the Israelis.

In your opinion, how is the ongoing conflict impacting the broader dynamics in the Middle East, particularly in relation to the Palestinian question and the relationships between various Arab states and Israel?

The Palestinian question has now become central to West Asian politics. It has always been the central issue, but the Israelis and the Americans had begun to argue that the principal concern in the region is the threat from Iran rather than the resolution of the Palestinian issue. With this conviction, the Israelis and the Americans had begun the process of normalization of relations and had succeeded with regard to the UAE, Bahrain, and to some extent Morocco, and to a lesser extent Sudan.

But that process has been completely halted. The Gaza war has once again reminded us that the central issue in West Asian security remains the Palestinian issue, and it is an urgent requirement for the region to address this matter.

You will recall that earlier there was a problem between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and taking advantage of their confrontation, the Americans had argued, first Trump and after that Biden, that we must put together an anti-Iran coalition made up of the United States itself, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. I think this attempt has once again been shown up as one that has no resonance and no relevance to the regional situation.

My own impression is that the Arab states, particularly led by Saudi Arabia, are not interested in being part of any anti-Iran coalition and indeed are hopeful of building positive economic and political ties with the Iranian government. But the Americans have not given up. They continue to focus on developing ties with the Arab states against Iran, even if it means ignoring the Palestinian issue. I think if that is indeed the case, it is a mistake and it is not likely to yield any positive returns for either Israel or the Americans.

Looking beyond the immediate crisis, what are the potential long-term implications of the Iran-Israel conflict on regional geopolitics and security dynamics? How might this impact the relationships between key regional players and their interactions with global powers?

Iran has been subjected to Western sanctions for more than 40 years, and now the Iranians are quite convinced that Western hostility to Iran is not likely to abate. In good faith, the Iranian government had participated in negotiations on the nuclear issue and had signed the nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It was the Americans who unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and imposed sanctions on Iran. Iranian leaders are now convinced that there is no future whatsoever in terms of promoting ties with the Americans, regardless of who is in the White House.

The important point to note is that the Iranians have now turned very strongly in favor of building relations with Russia and China. They are the major suppliers of drones to Iran and have helped Iran very closely in regard to the conflict in Ukraine with the Chinese. The Iranians have a very substantial 25-year agreement with China, which has security, defense, intelligence, economic, and energy ramifications.

I think that Iran has now convinced itself that its future lies in building up strategic ties with Russia as well as with China rather than hoping for an agreement with the Americans or with the Western powers.

How do you see the role of the United Nations and the International Court of Justice in the conflicts between Israel and Gaza?

The International Court of Justice has distinguished itself. Very few of us had thought that the issue of the atrocities committed by Israel in Gaza would be taken up by the international court. Nor did we believe that they would issue such a clear judgment against Israeli actions. The only problem with that judgment is that it is not enforceable unless the member states decide to enforce it. Actually, the greater failure in this regard has been from the United States. Taking a cue from the judgment, the Americans should have immediately suspended all military supplies. It is well known that the Israelis cannot fight for a single day without American supplies, which have been coming from the beginning of the conflict.

Even in the recent occasion when Iranian drones were fired toward Israel, it was the Americans and the Western allies who knocked down most of the drones. The moral of the story or the principal issue that emerges from this is that Israel is totally dependent on the Americans for its security and safety within West Asia. On its own, it has no capacity whatsoever to defend itself. But due to American support, Netanyahu has blackmailed the Americans and is able to continue its murderous spree regardless of what the American president says in public.

Regarding the United Nations, it can only be as effective as its permanent members allow it to be. Today, given the global divide between the Western Alliance on the one hand and China and Russia on the other, the United Nations Security Council is incapable of passing any resolution and enforcing any resolution that is passed. They are neither able to pass a resolution nor, when they do, does anything happen. For example, recently, when the UN Security Council passed a resolution at the end of March calling for an immediate ceasefire, the US permanent representative herself publicly stated that this is not enforceable. I am unable to understand what the noise about that resolution was. What were they seeking to say and do? It has been a disappointment for me right from the beginning that the Americans have been incapable of showing any display of moral values or any courage in the face of the blackmail coming from Netanyahu in Tel Aviv.

Finally, how do you see the future of Palestine?

Even now, despite the carnage that we have witnessed, it is difficult to be optimistic regarding the future of the Palestinian question because I do not see the Americans and their Western allies actually pursuing a two-state solution robustly in the face of opposition from Israel. Israel has convinced itself that the state it has, including the occupied territory, is God-given and that they have biblical sanction not to share this state equally with any other people, even if those people have lived there for over 2000 years. This is a kind of attachment, a divine view empowered by the Jewish people as a chosen people, giving them exclusive control over this land.

There are large sections of American opinion, including sections of the Jewish community and Christian evangelists, who support this messianic view based on biblical testimony. Unless there is a quality of sanity that emerges in Israeli thinking at some stage, whatever may be said in different world capitals, I do not see any progress being made toward obtaining a Palestinian state. A Palestinian state in which Jews and Israelis can live side by side would be the ideal solution. But it is not something that resonates positively with Israeli opinion as of now.

I don’t believe that even 20 percent of Israelis would support a two-state solution. Even though they may be angry with Netanyahu and believe that he has done harm to Israel, there is no overwhelming body of opinion within Israel that would support a two-state solution at this point. We need to see the evolution of Israeli thinking over time. They have lived for 75 years with the view that the Palestinian is their sole enemy and that he will murder them in their bed, and therefore, they need to kill as many Palestinians as possible. There is not even a platform for dialogue between Jews and Palestinians. There is intense discrimination against Palestinians with the full support of the Israeli community.

Therefore, the first thing we need to see is the evolution in the thinking of the Israeli people. They will need to share their messianic view relating to land and actually see the real message which is there in the Bible: that Muslims, Jews, and Christians should live side by side as their ancestors had done centuries ago.

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