UP’S TRADITIONAL FAULT LINES

I have had three postings in Uttar Pradesh during my 30+ years in service of the Govt. of India. The first one was in Meerut Cantt., then Allahabad (now Prayag) and finally, Gorakhpur – total of six years or a fifth of my professional career.

These three towns were in three distinct parts of the state. Since my job entailed substantial travel in the interior, I came to face many ugly realities of life in that state.

The first was caste, second was community, third was ultra-feudal inter-caste relations that determined land and agrarian rights and all other economic relations while the last was the near total absence of security of life, liberty and property and sequestration of power by those that had their private armies.

Any political party that played along two or more of these four major fault lines invariably held sway in Lucknow. Things have not changed much. In this context, I have some preliminary observations on the pre-poll politics of the forthcoming UP Assembly election in 2022.

UP IS HEADING TO A DEMOGRAPHIC DISASTER

Steadily rising fragmentation of agriculture, the mainstay of the state’s economy, has caused the emergence of a collectivism for survival, best manifested in the farmers’ agitation. Those affected the most are small and marginal farmers and hordes of landless labour.

With land becoming uneconomic to till and credit is short supply, rural indebtedness is rising fast as is unemployment. Micro enterprises that are no better than WB’s sweat shops, probably keep starvation at bay.

Those affected the most belong to subaltern castes and Muslims. Recent farm laws compound the misery, indeed grant corporate interests the heft to drive out traditional agriculture.

FARMERS’ AGITATION: THE THIRD FORCE IN UP

What is interesting is that land-owning OBCs like Jats are spearheading the farmers’ agitation, their infantry comes from lower castes. Jats are spread not only across UP but also in other northern Indian states. Likewise, for all subaltern castes.

Since the leadership of the Dalits no longer has a charismatic touch, smaller leaders are unable to fit the bill of bringing these under an unified leadership to safeguard their economic interests by gaining political power. On the other hand, Jats have the economic heft to finance and sustain their agitation.

Indeed, a third stream of politics has opened in UP that is probably the most cosmopolitan that UP has seen in a century. This movement, with its overweening economic agenda, is a far stronger glue than any other, rising above self-defeating caste. And this will only eat into the votes of the two major parties in UP, viz. BJP and SP. Adding to these are strong agrarian roots of defence and police personnel across India that will add to the migration of votes.

BJP’S FAULT LINE FAILURES

Over the last decade, BJP has made innumerable promises of achhe din to the above castes, playing along a major fault line in that state and retained power. The farm agitation is, partly, the reaction to the multiple failures of the BJP to address any major promise.

To add insult to injury are moves like DeMo and the three farm laws.

The ongoing pandemic exposed the miserably sandy foundations of the Govt. of UP, undoing all efforts to restore the security of life by eliminating rival private armies and goondas in the state by the Bisht administration.

THE MUSLIM REACTION IS ONE OF RECONCILIATION

Another factor is the Muslim community. The Bisht administration with its Hindutva agenda may have initially succeeded, more often dishonourably, in allaying Hindu apprehensions of being overwhelmed by Muslims with patronage by both SP and INC, over the decades.

However, realization is now setting among the Hindus of the severe damage centuries-old economic relations between the two communities caused by Bisht and his private state police army and party leaders-cum-goons, as it affects the agricultural and SME sectors the most. UP stares at a demographic disaster, not a dividend as every economic indicator points.

Muslims, Shia and Sunni, too have received differential treatment from the BJP and Bisht. The BJP’s bearded duo got the Shias on their side, yet again with more false promises, none of which have been honoured.

Shias, in a majority, may therefore abstain from voting for the BJP. For the numerically superior Sunnis, they are happy that Ranjan Gogoi, CJI, took away the unifying Ram Mandir from the BJP’s election agenda.

They are also the hardest hit in agriculture and SME sectors where their employers and marketers are nearly all Hindus whose business has been completely wrecked. They too would be shopping for an alternative to the BJP. Farmers and SMEs are the single largest disaffected community in UP today, and all are shopping for alternatives.

THE MODI-BISHT BATTLE FOR SUPREMACY

Just as Modi is far removed from the BJP, Yogi is the reigning King-Emperor of UP, away from the BJP. If Modi is keen to stay PM for life, he cannot do so if Bisht does not support him in 2024.

At the same time, Bisht has his own prime ministerial ambitions with a clear caste advantage over Modi.

Of course, the Modi-Bisht battle will move a step forward if Bisht does not have his way in selecting ALL his candidates for the assembly election.

Bisht has already collected enough resources (he already has his Math’s private army) for his war chest to fight the elections independently of the BJP, lest push come to shove.

In such event, Bisht may well team up with a smaller player like SP+ to form a govt. with him as CM for a third term.

The last step could propel Bisht into the position of King-maker in 2024 on Raisina Hill. And that is a very distinct, albeit frightening, possibility, only in his alliance (not BJP) wins 40-50 LS seats in GE 2024.

IS THE SP A CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE?

Can SP+ pose a credible alternative for those shopping for one? For one, Akhilesh is no great organizer, nor does he have grass roots advisers that MSY had.

SP is a slow mover and is traditionally identified with just about 15% of UP’s voting population, i.e. the Yadavs. Non-Yadav OBCs like Mauryas and Kurmis have a running feud with the Yadavs.

Yet, SP remains the sole, though not the best by any stretch of imagination, alternative for farmers, non-Yadav OBCs, other subaltern communities and Muslims and a section of unscrupulous Brahmins.

However, Akhilesh does not seem to be extensively moving across UP or showing much action in the media at least. He stands in imminent danger of losing his last chance to create an alternative to the B-team marauders. History will not be kind to him if he fails this time.

I eagerly look forward to the UP assembly election as I did for the WB one earlier this year. All my above observations are subject to change as the campaign picks up. It is simply too early to arrive at any approximate conclusion.

Also Read: 

Declining Democracy and the Dawn of Dictatorial India?

The ‘Independent’ Indian Media

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