THE biggest outcome of one month old Rajasthan government crisis pertains to timely action and concerted efforts by newly created unofficial ‘Crisis Management Group’ comprising of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra which saved the day  for them as well as for organization unlike party governments in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Goa etc which were given to BJP on the platter.

Analysts opine that All India Congress Committee (AICC) failed to gauge the gravity of crisis in these congress ruled states as it did not have crisis management group and commitment to face onslaught of BJP which was equipped with better resources ,think tank ,timely action and strong central leadership in the form of PM, Naender Modi who is decisive and does not flicker or waver to hit against rivals with full authority at his command.

Incongruent of the fluid situation in MP where high command, Ex chief ministers viz Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh pushed former union minister, Jyotiraditya Scindia to the corner ensuring his humiliation to the hilt. Rajasthan’s former deputy CM, Sachin Pilot was prevented from leaving the party though he was also thrown into an identical situation thereby compelling him to revolt against state leadership. Secondly, he failed to muster the numbers which could have helped BJP to overthrow Gehlot government.

The end result is that Gehlot government in Rajasthan is safe and floor test of August 14 may be a mere formality which will witness an end of yet another chapter in the history of desert state which is being compared with a revolt by some MLAs engineered by congress in 1996 against late CM and stalwart of Rajasthan politics, Bhairon singh Shekhawat, while he had gone to USA for  treatment hence had to rush back and ensured the survival of his government.

According to political overseers, there were at least nine factors which governed the manipulations, purchase bid of MLAs and allurements in the form of positions in the government, boards and corporations but nothing worked against Ashok Gehlot, CM who has merged as a master strategician, stronger leader and saviour of prestige of the party.

Firstly, Sachin Pilot has saved his political career which could have been jeopardized after unsuccessful attempt to topple his own party’s government? Pilot was left with minimum possible options including floating a new outfit but past experience in Rajasthan defies the Logic.

Secondly, Pilot and his loyalists MLAs as well as supporters can rely on the promises which have been made by high command as its prestige is also on stake for honoring such commitments. A three member committee will act as per the directions of Sonia Gandhi who has finally approved the package.

Thirdly, Rahul Gandhi took the centre stage this time unlike in Scindia’s case when he kept himself aloof which cost the party an elected government having majority in the Rajasthan assembly. It could be a prelude of Rahul Gandhi taking over as the President of the party in near future as leaders and party cadres’ demand is swelling in every part of the country.

Rahul had taken lenient stand against Pilot and asked party spokesman Surjewala to tell media that doors are open for him provided he proceeds to Jaipur and relinquishes the facilities being provided by BJP in a luxury hotel in Haryana.

Fourthly, Pilot may be given an assignment in AICC as general secretary which will make him powerful as he will be working in close coordination with the AICC president which may also position him for future leadership of Rajasthan after Gehlot finishes his inning. As per sources, Pilot’s loyalists will be accommodated in cabinet or made chairpersons of boards and corporations which will lead to stability of the government.

Fiftly, Gehlot had acted on time when he sealed the borders to prevent entry of forces during Rajya Sabha polls which could have unsettled him and chances of  horse trading with the assistance of Pilot were bright. Such anticipation of manipulations by BJP to win over congress MLAs makes Gehlot as  magician politician  who could visualize a latent and real threat to his government. An old saying holds true to BJP which means ”Ab Pachtye Hot Kaya Jab Chidiya Chug Gayee Khet” (It’s no use of crying over spilled milk).”

Sixthly, Gehlot government crisis gave an opportunity to former CM, Vasundhra Raje to settle her scores with party high command for humiliating her after losing the assembly elections in the state. Observers say that it is open secret that PM Modi and union home minister, Amit Shah do not enjoy best of the relations with Raje which had deprived her of the post of CLP leader  in state assembly though she enjoys the support of majority of MLAs. RSS and high command gave a chance to senior leader, Gulab Chand Kataria who does not have much backing of party legislators.

Present national president, J.P.Nadda has tried to pacify Raje who is upset with high command for ignoring her loyalists while constituting the state executive.

Seventhly, exclusion of Raje from the strategy of de-stabilizing Gehlot government and total dependence upon Pilot as well as Gajender singh Shekhawat, union minister, Satish Punia, BJP state president and Om Mathur, a close associate of PM led to unsuccessful ‘Operation Destabilization’ thereby creating an embracement for the party.

Eighthly, politically, Gehlot suits Raje as change of government would have led to emergence of a new leadership in Rajasthan and isolated her from future  permutations and combinations and even the entry of Pilot could have created separate power centre?

Ninthly, Congress high command vigorously persuaded Pilot to stop him from quitting the party which was primarily due to his Gurjar community which can affect outcome of polls in several constituencies in UP, MP, Rajasthan etc. It would have sent wrong signal hence Priyanka was serious and over active in handling the crisis  as she will be eyeing assembly elections in UP in 2022. After Scindia, had Pilot also departed then youth congress leaders and workers might have felt demoralised hence high command  prevailed on him.

In this scenario, one can expect a smooth sailing of Gehlot government for the left out period of three and half years as another half hearted attempt to destabilize the state government by BJP seems to be a remote possibility keeping in view Pilot’s bitter experience.