National BJP president, J.P. Nadda sprang a big surprise when he nominated a new young face, Suresh Kashyap, MP, as the new state party president. The move seems to be guided by the pre-dominance of caste equations and zero level lobbying, a hallmark of most appointments in any organisation in the country.

It is widely accepted that all political parties give weightage to caste, region, lobbying power etc while alotting tickets during elections. Similarly, state presidents and organisational posts are also decided on the basis of these factors.

Specifically, the Scheduled Caste (SC) influence is important in Himachal in 17 out of the 68 assembly segments which are reserved for this category . Even in states like Punjab, Haryana, UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan etc, the SC population can be decisive to any political party to seize the majority and come to power.

Nadda’s experiment with Rajiv Bindal did not yield the desired result as Bindal had to hand in his resignation in May 2020 amidst the controversy relating to the corruption in the health department and allegations of the involvement of his relative.

Contrary to expectations, Nadda took a strong and dispassionate decision of directing Bindal to quit the post immediately, giving no time for manipulation and sending a positive signal in the party.

However, the sudden vacancy led to intense lobbying in the party to grab the post and the outcome has been unexpected, especially when we ponder over the track record Kashyap and lack of long organisational experience of holding senior position.

Several names were doing the rounds, like former BJP mahila wing chief, Indu Goswami, CM’s advisor Trilok Jamwal, two MLAs etc but the final selection went in favour of Kashyap, a candidate acceptable to the RSS also. Indu Goswami was also one of the front runners for the post but her candidacy was nullified when news emerged of her accusing RSS leader and organising secretary, Pawan Rana of playing foul games, even though she later retracted her outburst.

According to sources, her positive ties with the Prime Minister might have helped her candidacy, as she had worked with him during his stint as incharge of BJP party affairs in Himachal.

Though, analysing the situation, Nadda’s decision to go with Kashyap comes as a safer bet- as Goswami’s nomination could have annoyed former CM Shanta Kumar, who has strained relations with her due to Palampur politics.

However, the BJP leaders and workers were hoping to get their new state Chief from Himachal’s biggest district, Kangra, which is plagued by internal dissension and gradually slipping out of the grip of the ruling party.

Interestingly, as per the 2011 census, Himachal has a total population of 68.6 lakhs of which 25% are Scheduled Castes, 6% belong to Scheduled Tribes and 13% are from Other Backward Classes.The rest of the population belongs to upper castes (51%) or other communities (5%). But SC population is highly concentrated in the home district of the new party president, almost 30%, followed by Mandi (29%) and Kullu (28%), a major target area for BJP.

Observers opine that if the High Command intends the Chief Minister office to face hindrances in functioning smoothly, then its choice of state party president will lean towards an incumbent who creates hurdles and leads to instability, a situation witnessed during the open confrontation between former CM ,Virbhadra Singh and former PCC chief Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu a dispute which damaged both government and the organisation to the hilt.

Nadda has preferred to give Kashyap a chance, who so far has a clean image, belongs to the SC category and enjoys a good rapport with the Chief Minister which may lead to harmonious relations between the party and government. Such a synergy was also observed during the former state chief, Satpal Satti’s period.

Kashyap retired from the Air Force in 2004 and has worked with the BJP since then, specifically with the SC cell, in various roles which helped him in gaining the experience to handle a bigger assignment.

Digging deeper, as the CM belongs to the Rajput community, which formed 37.36% of HP population (2017), an addition of 5.7 percent makes it 42.43 percent and such deadly combination can unsettle the arithmetic of opposition especially Congress.

Sources said that union minister of state for Finance, Anurag Thakur seems to be satisfied also as Kashyap jells well with him which makes new President acceptable to Dhumal faction.

Kashyap being a retired army officer may create a positive impact amongst approximately 4.5 lakh ex-servicemen, who form a majority of the voters, the distribution varying across different districts like Kangra (1.2 lakh), Hamrpur (45,000), Mandi (30,000), Una (28,000), Bilaspur (15,000) etc.

The Sainik Board Hamirpur is currently headless for almost an year, speaking volumes of the so-called care of ex-servicemen by the present government. The director of board had resigned due to ‘personal’ reasons and no-one has been appointed so far, along with the vacancy of the deputy director, even though these posts have been recently advertised. They could have been easily filled on priority basis.

While Kashyap’s appointment might turn the tide, it is too early to predict the political advantage of the move for 2022 assembly polls.

While there are many positives, as per analysts, a caste imbalance has been created for the party in the state- The CM and state chief belong to older areas, whereas Congress is armed with a combination of Thakur (PCC chief Kuldeep Rathore) and Brahmin (CLP Leader, Mukesh Agnihotri), who hail from old and new areasareas respectively .

While caste is a huge driver, eventually, it is the strength of party cadres and resources which will make a difference in assembly elections and the BJP is in an advantageous position on both fronts.

Congress party’s Thakur and Brahmin combination impacts half of the voters (51.7%), but multiple other factors contribute in electoral politics, helping any political party in winning the maximum number of seats and Unfortunately Congress,at present, is devoid of these ingredients .