Behind the Scenes of India's 2024 Election: Speculations, Strategies, and Surprises

Decoding the Election: Exploring the Dynamics of Polling, Campaigns, and Voter Sentiments in the Race for Power

WITH POLLING OVER in five phases of the Lok Sabha elections and only two phases remaining, speculations are rife over the ultimate outcome of the elections.

Who or which alliance will win? That’s a billion-dollar question, which the psephologists are best qualified to answer through scientific analysis of factors in each constituency. Even they do not get it right most of the time as voters prefer to keep their preferences close to their heart.

exit_poll election It is no surprise then that most of the surveys conducted by various television channels, including the exit polls, go wrong. Some of these “pollsters” give wide margins and then claim that the final figures were close to their so-called predictions.

In almost all previous poll surveys conducted by various organizations, only one or two come anywhere close to the final outcome. Yet most of the channels run almost round-the-clock debates with a keen eye on the TRPs. This time, the drama would begin with the exit polls shortly after the completion of voting in all the constituencies.

It is a tough time for journalists as well because they face the question of who would win and with how much margin, in the mistaken belief that they know any better.

Yes, journalists travel and meet a cross-section of people, but they bank on what they see and what they are told. Even though they might try to give an objective view, there are always chances of subjective or personal preferences getting in the way.

There are, however, general indicators which define each election like the Modi wave in the 2019 elections.

This time around there appears to be no wave except the heat wave which is sweeping most parts of the country! And this heat wave is one of the reasons for a comparatively lower voter turnout across the five phases.

election A good sign is the increase in voter turnout over the five phases with the fourth and fifth phase registering almost the same turnout as last time.

Surprisingly, the voter turnout is much lower in Uttar Pradesh which is a politically vibrant state with much at stake. The turnout is also comparatively less in Bihar and Maharashtra, the other two hotbeds of politics.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is undoubtedly by far the most hectic campaigner in the country. Since the announcement of the elections and enforcement of the Model Code of Conduct, he has clocked over 120 election rallies and has participated in several road shows.

In fact, he had started campaigning a few months before the announcement of the elections, and he has been making the best use of the long-drawn seven-phase elections.

government No other BJP leaders like Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh or JP Nadda nor Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge come anywhere close to the energy of Modi even though he has the distinct advantage of resources.

Leaders of regional parties have remained confined to their states and have been actively campaigning but can’t match the scale and scope of the prime minister.

An analysis of the speeches delivered by him shows that his main target has been the Congress with derogatory references to Rahul Gandhi. Though there have been changes in the narrative by him for different phases of the elections, his attack on the Congress has been on top of his agenda.

The criticism of Congress included the mocking references to the “Shehzada” and the issue of corruption. To use a cricket term, he has been looking for “loose balls” to hit out at the Congress including the remarks by Sam Pitroda on wealth distribution and Mani Shankar Aiyar on Pakistan. He has also been saying that Pakistan would like Rahul Gandhi to come to power.

The other major issues on which Narendra Modi has focused include the appeasement of minorities or the Hindu-Muslim subject, welfare schemes, and the progress made by the country under his leadership.

Interestingly, Modi has hardly spoken about the Ram Mandir, which appears low in the priority of the citizens now.

Congress has been focusing on the alleged threat to the constitution if the Modi government is returned to power. Its leaders including Rahul Gandhi and Kharge have been talking about the “autocratic” regime and how citizens’ liberties would be curbed through amendments to the constitution if the government is voted back.

The party has promised a huge number of government jobs – something which the youth aspire to the most – besides welfare schemes like the grant of Rs one lakh per year to all women and doubling of the current quantity of ration to the poor. However, the party’s campaign has been reactive to what the BJP leaders are saying rather than an aggressive or development-oriented campaign.