The Dynamics of Political Change – As India braces for the outcome of the 2024 elections, the looming question is whether this shift will truly bring about substantive change or simply maintain the existing state of affairs.

MOST PREDICTIONS in India suggest that after the results of the 2024 parliamentary elections are declared on June 4th, the number of BJP seats in the Lok Sabha will be drastically reduced.

Some believe they will be reduced from 303 seats at present to about 200-210 seats.

Some even speculate it may be less than 200. If that happens, either Modi will become a very weak Prime Minister, a shadow of the man with the 56” chest, heading a coalition government in which he will become dependent for survival on allies.

The other alternative will be that a coalition INDIA government will come to power, with Rahul Gandhi heading it, but again as a weak PM dependent for survival on allies.

Will either of these coalition governments be able to solve the huge problems facing the country, such as massive poverty, massive unemployment, appalling levels of child malnutrition, skyrocketing prices of essential commodities, and almost total lack of proper healthcare and education for the masses? Not at all.

These massive problems will continue as before and may even worsen. What will happen after June 4th will be a fierce struggle for lucrative portfolios and constant squabbling thereafter, as it happened when the Janata Party (which was really a coalition of parties) came to power in 1977 in the elections following the Emergency.

All that the Janata Party did throughout its tenure was infighting among its constituent members and instituting criminal cases against Indira Gandhi (which, in fact, made her a martyr).

If the INDIA coalition comes to power, we may witness a similar spectacle. The test of every political activity and political system is one and only one: does it raise the standard of living of the people? Does it give them better lives?

I submit that there will be no improvement in the people’s lives even after a new government as referred to above is formed.

So the people of India will say what Manthara said to Kaikeyi in the Ramayan: “Koi nrip hoye, hamein ka haani, Cheri chhaad ki hoib rani” (How does it matter to me who will be the king? Will I stop being a slave and become a Queen?).

Some say at least Muslims will benefit if BJP is ousted from power, since under BJP rule they are oppressed. But the main problem of Muslims is the same as that of Hindus: poverty, unemployment, child malnutrition, price rise, lack of healthcare, etc. Will they be resolved by simply removing BJP from power? Not at all.

It may be said that if BJP is ousted there will be no more lynching, bulldozing houses, or beating for not saying Jai Shri Ram for Muslims. That may be true, but how many Indian Muslims have been lynched or beaten for not saying Jai Shri Ram? Just a handful.

Compared to the total population of Indian Muslims of 200 million, this is a minuscule number. The problems of the vast majority of Muslims are not these but the same which afflict the vast majority of Hindus: poverty, unemployment, price rise, etc.

So it is not true that the problems of Indian Muslims will be solved by just removing the BJP from power.

I submit nothing substantial will change after June 4th.

However, there will be one change: On April 20, 1653, Cromwell said to the British Parliament, “You have sat here too long for any good you have been doing lately. In the name of God go.”

Similarly, the Indian people have said to Narendra Modi, “You have been Prime Minister for 10 years, and have wreaked havoc. In the name of God now go”.

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