How emigration, fertility decline, and migration patterns are reshaping Punjab’s demographic and educational landscape
ACCORDING TO A special report in Times of India by IP Singh, Punjab’s demographic landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with declining Sikh population growth and increased migration patterns altering the state’s composition.
The population growth rate in Punjab has been steadily declining over the past decade, as indicated by statistics from the Civil Registration System (CRS). The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2019-21 recorded Punjab’s total fertility rate (TFR) at 1.6, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1.
Akal Takht Jathedar Giani Raghbir Singh underscored these concerns during his address on Bandi Chhor Diwas, which coincides with Diwali. The Jathedar highlighted that Sikhs were getting reduced to a minority in the only Sikh-majority state in the country in view of the prevailing trends of emigration of Sikh youths and influx of migrants from other states into Punjab.
This demographic shift has caused alarm within the community, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing political and leadership challenges, as well as diplomatic tensions involving Canada and India.
While the 2021 Census remains pending, an analysis of the “Report on Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2023-24” in conjunction with the 2011 Census data reveals notable demographic changes.
Sikh children studying at the foundational level—covering pre-primary to Class II within the 3-8 age group—constitute an estimated 49% of students, which is 8.68% lower than the Sikh population share of 57.69% recorded in the 2011 Census.
According to the special report in Times of India by IP Singh, Punjab stands out as the only state, along with Chandigarh, where minority enrolment increases from lower to higher classes, highlighting a decline in Sikh children at primary levels.
This trend is attributed to two key factors: the continued emigration of young Sikh Punjabis, who are settling abroad and raising families outside India, and the steady migration of people from other states into Punjab, where they are settling and having children.
The UDISE+ report, compiled by the Union Ministry of Education, collects data from all recognized schools across India, covering more than 14.71 lakh schools, 98 lakh teachers, and 24.8 crore students. It provides detailed minority enrolment statistics, where Sikhs make up the largest share among minority groups in Punjab. Thus, any significant trends observed in minority enrolment largely reflect changes within the Sikh community.
Typically, in most states, enrolment is higher at the primary level and declines in higher grades. However, in Punjab, minority enrolment follows the reverse trend, with higher representation in secondary education and lower numbers at the foundational level.
Interestingly, even among Muslims in Punjab, enrolment decreases as students move from primary to secondary education, whereas the opposite trend is observed in Sikh students.
The statistics from UDISE+ 2023-24 further illustrate this shift:
Minority student enrolment in secondary level (Class IX-XII, age 14-18): 60.3%
Middle level (Class VI-VIII, age 11-14): 58.3%
Preparatory level (Class III-V, age 8-11): 56.2%
Foundational level (Pre-primary to Class II, age 3-8): 54.3%
For Muslim students in Punjab, enrolment at the secondary level is 2.1%, middle level 2.6%, preparatory level 3.2%, and foundational level 3.4%.
According to Times of India’s special report, the 2011 Census recorded Punjab’s Muslim population at 1.93%. However, in recent years, there has been a visible increase in Muslim migration from Uttar Pradesh. This trend was confirmed in October 2023 by the Punjab Waqf Board and Muslim community leaders. This rising Muslim migration has contributed to a higher proportion of Muslim enrolment at primary levels, even as Sikh children’s representation continues to decline.
Further analysis of UDISE+ data reveals that, when subtracting the enrolment percentages of Muslims (3.4%) and other minorities (Christians 1.25%, Jains 0.16%, Buddhists 0.11%, Other religions 0.03%, Religion not stated 0.31%) from the total minority enrolment of 54.3%, Sikh children’s enrolment is estimated at around 49%.
This pattern aligns with the data from the Civil Registration System (CRS), which reflects a sharp decline in birth registrations in Punjab. The last available CRS report from 2020 shows that births in Punjab fell from 5,11,058 in 2011 to 3,81,200 in 2020. In contrast, Haryana, a smaller state, recorded 5,91,914 births in 2020.
The primary cause of Punjab’s declining birth rate is the ongoing emigration of young Sikhs, while migrants from other states contribute to the birth rate in Punjab. The actual decline in birth rates among native Punjabis is likely even more severe.
Total Enrolment of Sikh Children Nationally
The UDISE+ 2023-24 report notes that minority representation in total school enrolment is about 20%. Among minorities:
Muslims: 79.6%
Christians: 10%
Sikhs: 6.9%
Buddhists: 2.2%
Jains: 1.3%
Parsis: 0.1%
This indicates that Sikh students make up only 1.38% of the total school-going population in India, a decline from their 1.72% share in the 2011 Census.
Punjab’s Share in 3-7 Age Group Enrolment
Punjab accounted for 2.29% of India’s total population in the 2011 Census. However, the UDISE+ 2023-24 “population projection” data shows that in the 3-7 age group, Punjab’s share has dropped to 1.73% (22,24,108 out of 12,85,77,060 students nationwide).
Haryana, despite being smaller, holds a 2.13% share (27,40,133 students). Given that Sikh children make up approximately 49% of Punjab’s population, their national representation in this age group is estimated at 0.85%, compared to their 1.72% population share in 2011.
Rise in Hindu and Muslim Enrolment
Data from UDISE+ 2023-24 also highlights an increase in Hindu children’s enrolment at the foundational level, reaching 45.7%—7.22% higher than the Hindu population share of 38.48% in the 2011 Census. This increase is attributed entirely to migration, as urban upper-caste Hindus and Scheduled Caste communities, particularly the better-off sections, are increasingly leaving Punjab.
However, there is also evidence suggesting that some Hindu migrants are returning to their home states. A comparison of UDISE+ data from 2021-22 and 2023-24 shows a decline of 1.58 lakh in total student enrolment and a 2.66 lakh drop in government school enrolment, despite an increase in Muslim students at foundational and preparatory levels.
Meanwhile, Muslim enrolment at the primary level (Class I-V) has risen by approximately 22% in just two years. The UDISE+ 2021-22 report recorded Muslim minority enrolment at 2.7% of total primary enrolment in Punjab, while the UDISE+ 2023-24 report places Muslim foundational-level enrolment at 3.4% and preparatory-level enrolment at 3.2%, leading to a combined primary enrolment of 3.3%.
This demographic transformation, as documented in the Times special report by IP Singh, underscores the far-reaching impact of migration patterns on Punjab’s sociopolitical and cultural landscape. 
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Team PT
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