Implications for Congress, Regional Allies, and the Opposition’s Unity
IS THE INDIA Alliance going the way of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 2? In 2012, Mamata Banerjee walked away from the UPA citing FDI in multi-brand retail, increased diesel prices, and differences with the ruling Congress as reasons for deserting the coalition of contradictions that lasted until 2014.
UPA 2 was allegedly one of the most corrupt governments in India’s history, paving the way for the BJP’s resurgence and the ascension of then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to the prime ministership.
Mamata Banerjee
Against this backdrop, Ms. Banerjee brought a humiliating end to three decades of communist rule by winning three-fifths of the seats in the 2011 West Bengal Assembly elections, becoming Chief Minister for the fourth time in 2024.
In this changed scenario, she has expressed her ambition to play a bigger role at the national level, vying for the chairmanship of the INDIA bloc, which is facing a survival crisis amid growing dissent.
Her move to propose Mallikarjun Kharge as a candidate for the bloc’s chairmanship appears to be a calculated strategy to counter the bid of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who worked tirelessly for over a year to stitch the alliance together.
Mamata Banerjee’s Aspirations
Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand leader of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Chief Minister of West Bengal, has been positioning herself as a pivotal figure in the opposition’s INDIA bloc.
Known for her fierce opposition to the BJP, Mamata’s aspirations to lead the coalition have injected both energy and complexity into the bloc’s dynamics. Her political clout and determination have sparked speculation about her potential as a unifying leader.
By projecting herself as a viable alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Mamata aims to consolidate regional leaders under her leadership.
Recent overtures to Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal, and Uddhav Thackeray indicate her intent to solidify her position in the alliance while maintaining an edge over Congress.
Moreover, her ambitions are seen as a strategic diversion from the issue of succession planning within her party, ensuring her hold over the TMC in West Bengal remains unchallenged.
Impact on Congress
Mamata’s ambitions pose a significant challenge to Congress, traditionally the pivot of opposition alliances. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s newfound momentum after the Bharat Jodo Yatra, Congress struggles to assert dominance within the INDIA bloc.
Mamata Banerjee with Rahul Gandhi
Mamata’s rising stature could further diminish Congress’s influence, especially in states where regional parties have eclipsed it.
In states like West Bengal and Kerala, where Congress competes directly with the TMC and the Left, Mamata’s leadership aspirations could intensify rivalries. Her insistence on a leadership role may also lead to contentious seat-sharing agreements, particularly in states where both Congress and TMC seek to secure the anti-BJP vote.
While Congress remains the largest opposition party with a pan-India presence, its role in uniting regional parties under the INDIA banner is critical.
However, Mamata’s ambitions might compel Congress to recalibrate its strategy, potentially resulting in internal dissent and strained alliances.
Challenges for the INDIA Bloc
The INDIA bloc, a coalition of ideologically diverse parties, faces significant challenges in maintaining unity amidst competing interests:
Leadership Dilemma: Mamata’s leadership bid could alienate other leaders like Akhilesh Yadav and Arvind Kejriwal, who also harbor ambitions. The lack of a consensus candidate for Prime Minister could worsen tensions.- Seat-Sharing Complications: Negotiating seat-sharing agreements among 26 parties will test the bloc’s cohesion. Contentious discussions, particularly in states like West Bengal, Punjab, and Delhi, could strain alliances.
- Ideological Cohesion: Balancing diverse ideologies, from the Left to centrists, while crafting a cohesive anti-BJP narrative will require strategic acumen.
- Resource Mobilization: The bloc faces an uphill battle against the BJP’s formidable election machinery, which includes extensive financial resources and organizational strength.
- Public Perception: The bloc must present itself as a stable alternative to the BJP. Infighting, leadership tussles, and inconsistent messaging could undermine voter confidence.
Fallout of Mamata’s Ambitions
Mamata’s assertive push for leadership presents both opportunities and risks for the INDIA bloc.
Positive Outcomes:
- Strengthened Regional Leadership: Her leadership could empower regional parties, amplifying their voice within the alliance.
- Focused Anti-BJP Agenda: Mamata’s leadership style could sharpen the bloc’s narrative against the BJP, particularly in states where regional parties dominate.
Negative Consequences:
- Erosion of Unity: Her leadership ambitions might provoke resistance from other regional leaders, weakening the bloc’s cohesion.
- Congress’s Retaliation: A sidelined Congress might adopt a confrontational stance, fragmenting opposition strategies in key states.
For the INDIA bloc to emerge as a credible alternative to the BJP, it must resolve the leadership issue pragmatically. Mamata Banerjee, Congress, and other regional leaders must prioritize collective goals over individual ambitions.
Key Strategies for Unity:
- Consensus Leadership: Emphasize collective leadership instead of projecting a single face prematurely.
- Cohesive Narrative: Develop a unified message focused on governance, economic reforms, and social justice to resonate with voters.
- Strong Coordination Mechanism: Form a robust committee to streamline decision-making and resolve disputes.
- Respect for Regional Sensitivities: Ensure fair distribution of responsibilities and resources among parties.
- Effective Public Outreach: Conduct extensive campaigns highlighting BJP’s failures and presenting a clear vision for India’s future.
In the final assessment, Mamata Banerjee’s ambition to lead the INDIA bloc underscores her political acumen and determination. While her leadership could energize the alliance, it also risks exacerbating internal rifts. For Congress and its allies, navigating this complex dynamic will be a test of political maturity. 
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K. S. Tomar
The writer, a senior political analyst, is a former Editor of the Hindustan Times' Rajasthan edition and has spent nearly four decades in journalism, including a six year stint in Nepal where he covered Sino-India-Nepal complex relationship and had a ringside seat to the Himalayan Kingdom's transition into democracy.
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