India Slides Down a Treacherous Slope to Rogue State Status

If India thinks that Modi’s photo-op with no content whatever is the way to charm BRICS members, it is sadly mistaken.

In 2020, Australia expelled four Indian intelligence officers who allegedly attempted to acquire sensitive defence technology and airport security protocols. An ABC report stated that “the net of spies” targeted Australian politicians and monitored the Australian-Indian community; ABC reported this only in May 2024.

The four officers quietly left Australia, and the issue didn’t snowball bilaterally, according to the Australian national broadcaster. In April 2024, The Washington Post reported that two officers from the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s foreign intelligence service, were expelled from Australia in 2020. Following that, ABC reported that “a number” of Indian officials were being removed from Australia by the Scott Morrison government.

Morrison was succeeded by Anthony Albanese as the Australian Prime Minister in May 2022. These reports pointed to the alleged activities of Indian intelligence agencies in monitoring and intimidating members of the Indian diaspora.

The Australian Foreign Affairs Minister, Penny Wong, then refused to confirm the 2020 incident, but she stressed “the importance of ensuring the resilience of our [Australian] democracy, including in the face of any suggestion of foreign interference.”

In 2020, a top US newspaper reported that the post of Minister (Consular) in the Indian Embassy in DC was vacant for over 18 months as the State Department delayed clearance.

Cut to 2024 and to the US and Canada, where charges levied on Indian officers and nationals involved murder and attempted murder. The secondary charge sheet filed by the DOJ/FBI a few weeks ago explicitly mentioned India’s Home Minister, among a few other top officials, including the NSA and the R&AW Secretary, all by name, in an alleged plot to murder another Sikh separatist, Gurpatwant Pannu. In the meantime, Canada and India each expelled six top diplomats from their respective countries for the murder of a Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, BC, in 2023.

Another major development is the sanctioning of 19 Indian companies for their alleged role in aiding Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.

Recently, while announcing the sanctions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the State Department said, “The United States is today sanctioning nearly 400 entities and individuals for enabling Russia’s prosecution of its illegal war. In this action, the Department of State is imposing sanctions on more than 120 individuals and entities. Concurrently, the Department of the Treasury is designating more than 270 individuals and entities. The Department of Commerce is also adding 40 entities to its Entity List.”

It said the move aims to disrupt sanctions evasion and target entities in multiple countries, including China, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and the UAE, apart from India, for selling “items and other important dual-use goods to Russia, including critical components that Russia relies on for its weapons systems to wage war against Ukraine.”

The US State Department also detailed the charges against four Indian firms on its list of 120: Ascend Aviation India, Mask Trans, TSMD Global, and Futrevo. It alleged that Ascend Aviation “sent over 700 shipments to Russia-based companies between March 2023 and March 2024,” including “over $200,000 worth of CHPL items, such as US-origin aircraft components,” while naming the firm’s directors. The State Department claimed that Mask Trans was “involved in the supply of over $300,000 worth of CHPL items such as aviation components to Russia-based and US-designated S 7 Engineering LLC from June 2023 to at least April 2024.”

The other two Indian firms were among those designated for allegedly “operating or having operated in the technology sector of the Russian Federation economy.” The State Department said, “TSMD Global Private Limited is an India-based company that shipped at least $430,000 worth of CHPL items to Russia-based companies, including Electron Komponent and the US-designated companies: Limited Liability Company VMK, Alfa Limited Liability Company, and Joint Stock Company Avtovaz.” It alleged that “these shipments, which occurred between July 2023 and March 2024, included US- and EU-origin BIS CHPL Tier 1 and 2 items such as electronic integrated circuits, central processing units, and other fixed capacitors.”

The State Department accused Futrevo of being “involved in the supply of over $1.4 million worth of CHPL items such as electronic components to Russia-based and US-designated Limited Liability Company SMT-ILOGIC, the manufacturer of Orlan drones, with Russia-based and US-designated Special Technology Center.” “The shipments were from January 2023 to at least February 2024,” it said. The two Indian nationals sanctioned are Vivek Kumar Mishra and Sudhir Kumar, the directors of Delhi-based Ascend Aviation.

In November 2023, Si2 Microsystems was added to the restricted “Entities List” for supplying “US-origin integrated circuits” to the Russian military despite the transfers being banned after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, without the required license.

In June, US Ambassador Eric Garcetti had said that any Indian company that violates global sanctions against Russia will have to be aware of the “consequences” they face when trying to do business with countries in Europe and other US allies around the world.

According to the Department of the Treasury, several Indian companies have been shipping dual-use items to Russia. This includes Abhar Technologies and Services Private Limited, which sent “high-priority dual-use technology — including electronic integrated circuits — to Russian end-users.

• Officials said India-based Denvas Services was being used to procure US-origin microelectronics for use in advanced conventional weapons as recently as 2023. The company is “managed and directed by several Russian nationals involved in defense procurement schemes.”
• Emsystech has sent over 800 shipments — including electronic integrated circuits and tantalum capacitors — to Russia-based end-users.
• “India-based Galaxy Bearings LTD and Orbit Fintrade LLP have exported dozens of high-priority dual-use equipment to Russia, including roller bearings and roller assemblies.”
• Innovio Ventures sent over 200 shipments to Russia-based end-users since May 2022. Items include electronic integrated circuits and multilayer ceramic capacitors.

In each case, since these were dual-use items, a mandatory export license from DGFT was required, without which no consignment could have left Indian shores. Or were bribes paid here too on a per consignment basis? Why has this not been investigated to date?

So, what does the mumbo-jumbo of information above tell us?

First, that the universal court procedure in response to a charge sheet is to set a date for the commencement of trial and then summon the accused and prosecution witnesses. Such summons are usually issued to the respective government via its local Ambassador/High Commissioner.

In turn, he/she forwards it to the respective Foreign Ministry, which then forwards it to the Ministry of the Interior (Home). If no response is received, the foreign court may issue a warrant for arrest and send it for execution to the accused federal government. If that fails or remains unactioned, the DOJ may recommend sanctioning the accused via a notification issued by the State Department or the Department of the Treasury, as per internal jurisdiction.

Once an individual is sanctioned, the Indian equivalent of a proclaimed offender, a look-out notice (Red/Blue depending on the gravity of the crime) would be issued by Interpol that mandates its observance by all 196 member states, including India. Since this is criminal action, no immunity can be availed by any accused constitutional functionary in India, even under Indian law. If the delinquent is not arrested and deported to the US to stand trial, the US and its allies are at liberty to impose sanctions of various types on the country that does not arrest the delinquent; no country will risk that.

Of course, the usual court procedures in the home country of the delinquent will have to be observed before deportation can be ordered by a local court. At the same time, local courts usually grant early hearings since a foreign government of major consequence is involved, thereby considerably reducing the usual lead time Indian courts take in such matters. The FBI took under a year to obtain the deportation of Nikhil Gupta, the alleged hired assassin, from the Czech Republic.

All the accused in the attempted murder of the Sikh separatists in the US may be arrested at any time and in any of the 196 signatory member states. Now place the condition of the three main Indian accused in this context. The DOJ, acting through the FBI, has successfully obtained the deportation of accused individuals from many rogue states in record time.

All it needs is the Department of the Treasury to force branches of all Indian banks and FIs out of the US while sequestering their local assets (as Russia did when the West sequestered its $300 billion overseas cash balances), even T-Bonds issued by the Department of the Treasury.

At another level, there could be Department of Defence sanctions on the export of capital equipment and spares, even from France and Italy, both loyal NATO allies. Or withdrawal of MFN status for India and the imposition of a high tariff regime (which Trump is already bandying). Likewise, US merchant bankers operating in India, like Black Rock, Blackstone, and JP Morgan, etc., may be directed to close down operations. The promised microchip plant for the US NSA in India could also be in danger of cancellation.

In the worst-case scenario, the US could prevail upon these entities to withdraw their investments from India, which would hugely impact the Indian bourses, and seek withholding of grants from the World Bank, USAID, etc. The Canadians, who are awaiting the course the US takes, may follow suit; Canadian funds are already restricted in India. The only thing the Indian government needs to do is arrest the three accused and hand them over to the US government; doing so will avoid public anger in both the US and Canada and, importantly, safeguard India’s relations with both countries.

If India thinks that Modi’s photo-op with no content whatever is the way to charm BRICS members, it is sadly mistaken. Russia is mired in Ukraine, while things are not exactly looking up for China’s economy. Likewise, Iran faces Israel and the US in the Gulf in an increasingly complex showdown. RSA and Brazil’s economies, similarly, aren’t exactly in the pink of health.

Also Read: The Indo-China Agreement and the Challenge of Restoring Stability Along the LAC

Further, BRICS is neither a military alliance nor a currency issuer or an economic union, as yet. It needed Russia to persuade China to move its troops back a measly 2 km (yet 13-16 km within Indian territory) in Ladakh while the Indian forces were pushed another 2 km into their own territory! And this was tom-tommed as restoration of the pre-Apr 2020 position by none other than India’s EAM!! If India feels that BRICS is the sure-fire way of getting out of the US-Canada mess, it is sadly mistaken.

The world has today become tripolar, with Russia and China facing the US and a very weak Western Alliance (that Trump threatens to bill for US defence on their respective territories). The US economy today pays out over a trillion USD/annum as interest on its $36 tn. public debt, a figure that will progressively rise by a trillion every month!

Businesses are closing down across the Western world, so much so that supermarkets in the UK have started keeping essentials like milk and cheese under lock and key, to prevent shoplifting. Each nation is running unprecedented budget deficits and key govt. entities, like the NHS, are struggling to survive.

Also Read: The Xi-Modi Meeting: A Diplomatic Misstep in the Face of Chinese Expansionism

The US SSA is projected to go bankrupt by 2030 given the rapid retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, although its defence budget is over a trillion USD. Yet, the fear of the Sino-Russian-Iranian alliance scares the West, so much that it will do DC’s bidding, never mind the costs involved, as is apparent from their roles in Ukraine, and, now, Israel.

Given this alarming scenario, the Govt. of India will eventually (maybe 3-6 months) have to buy peace with the Americans and hand over the three delinquents, since the Indians have clearly switched to the Western Alliance, even in military terms.

In the interim, the Manhattan court will continue to hear the prosecutors, and if unduly delayed, return a guilty verdict against the three accused Indians. That will automatically grant proclaimed offender status to all the accused, followed by an Interpol Red Corner Notice (RCN).

What undid the Indian murder/attempted murder in Canada and the US was India’s supreme confidence that it was indispensable to the Western Alliance and, therefore, had the license to kill a foreign citizen in his home country; even the Khashoggi murder happened on Saudi soil (extra-territorial in the US involving a Saudi national only).

Today, the tables have turned against India, and it risks being declared a rogue state for several misdemeanours, not far different from North Korea. Two charge sheets have been filed in a Lower Manhattan court, an event that cannot be turned back even by the new US President; nor will the new President interfere with DoJ/FBI’s/State Dept/Treasury’s recommendations and actions, instead watch from the sidelines as the judicial process takes over (good to recall that it was the DoJ and the FBI that raided Trump’s golf course home in Mar de Lago, Miami, having obtained a warrant while he was still the President).

Also Read: The Indo-Canadian Diplomatic Rift: Unravelling the Nijjar Assassination and Its Global Ramifications

After all, US and Canadian citizens were murdered or faced attempted murder on their own soil; this provides ample reason for public opinion to support their respective governments in taking strong action against India for its misdemeanours. No BRICS member will support India’s unpardonable criminal offences that should be sufficient for it to be expelled from BRICS; just that misplaced perception of India in the geopolitical matrix may pre-empt such expulsion. India has stepped into a treacherous slope from which there is no exit.

Disclaimer : PunjabTodayNews.com and other platforms of the Punjab Today group strive to include views and opinions from across the entire spectrum, but by no means do we agree with everything we publish. Our efforts and editorial choices consistently underscore our authors’ right to the freedom of speech. However, it should be clear to all readers that individual authors are responsible for the information, ideas or opinions in their articles, and very often, these do not reflect the views of PunjabTodayNews.com or other platforms of the group. Punjab Today does not assume any responsibility or liability for the views of authors whose work appears here.

Punjab Today believes in serious, engaging, narrative journalism at a time when mainstream media houses seem to have given up on long-form writing and news television has blurred or altogether erased the lines between news and slapstick entertainment. We at Punjab Today believe that readers such as yourself appreciate cerebral journalism, and would like you to hold us against the best international industry standards. Brickbats are welcome even more than bouquets, though an occasional pat on the back is always encouraging. Good journalism can be a lifeline in these uncertain times worldwide. You can support us in myriad ways. To begin with, by spreading word about us and forwarding this reportage. Stay engaged.

— Team PT