The diplomatic relations between Canada and India have hit a historic low following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations of Indian involvement in the assassination of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Despite India’s inflated claim of being a ‘Vishwaguru’, its flawed diplomatic strategy of putting all its eggs in one basket has allowed the newly elected Maldivian President, Mohamed Muizzu, to sway his voters with the slogan “Out India.”
This was followed by the election of a ‘pro-China’ leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, and the subsequent ouster of a dictatorial ally, Sheikh Hasina, which has enhanced China’s influence in South Asia.
In addition, Canada’s wild allegations regarding the assassination of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar by Indian agents have triggered the expulsion of diplomats from both nations. The truth behind these allegations will emerge after further investigation.
Vote Bank Politics and the Sikh Community’s Role
The Sikh community holds considerable significance in Canada, which has one of the largest Sikh populations outside of India—around 770,000, making up about 2% of Canada’s total population. Many Sikhs are concentrated in electoral districts in British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta, and in some constituencies, they represent a significant voting bloc capable of influencing election outcomes.
Indian students are also key contributors to the Canadian economy, accounting for around 40% or $10.2 billion of the total $22.3 billion spent by international students in 2022.
New data shows that international student spending added $30.9 billion to Canada’s GDP in 2022. As per the data, the number of Indian students granted study permits rose to 278,250, making up 40.7% of the 682,060 international students by 2023.
In 2024, up until August, 137,445 Indian students received study permits out of 374,060 international students, representing 36.7%—a decrease of about 4% compared to 2023, which will be affected by the current bitter face-off between the two countries.
A New Twist: U.S. Joins Canada in Allegations Against India
Gurpatwant Pannu
Amidst this diplomatic turmoil, a new twist has emerged as the U.S., India’s strategic and geopolitical partner, has aligned with Canada.
Washington accused India of orchestrating a conspiracy to eliminate Khalistani propagator Gurpatwant Singh Pannu through its intelligence agencies. Experts believe that America’s decision to side with Canada and level such allegations does not bode well for Indian diplomacy.
Trudeau’s Political Compulsions
At first glance, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations against India seem to be the product of vote-bank politics and a desperate attempt to retain power. India has criticized Trudeau for failing to provide credible evidence of an Indian diplomat’s involvement in Nijjar’s killing outside a Gurdwara on June 18, 2023, in British Columbia.
Hardeep Singh Nijjar
The diplomatic tensions between India and Canada, especially after the expulsion of diplomats by both sides, could significantly affect Indian citizens working, studying, or planning to immigrate to Canada.
Trudeau’s Liberal Party has been losing support, and his minority government is sustained by the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, a prominent Sikh politician. This alliance may explain Trudeau’s tough stance against India, perceived by some Sikhs as being hostile to their interests.
Impact on Indian Workers and Students in Canada
Indians form a large portion of Canada’s skilled workforce, particularly in IT, healthcare, engineering, and finance. Canada has long been a top destination for Indian professionals due to its immigration-friendly policies. However, if diplomatic relations continue to deteriorate, Indian workers may face delays in work permit renewals, visa processing, and permanent residency applications.
Similarly, Indian students, who make up a significant portion of Canada’s international student population, may encounter delays or increased scrutiny in obtaining visas. While there are no immediate signs of outright rejections, the uncertainty may complicate admission processes and hinder post-graduation work opportunities.
Impact on Immigration Pathways and Trade
Canada’s Express Entry program, which has been favorable for Indian professionals, may slow down due to increased processing times, stricter background checks, and potential policy changes.
The diplomatic rift may also impact family reunification processes and professional exchanges between Indian and Canadian companies, which could reduce job opportunities for Indian professionals in sectors like IT, telecommunications, and consulting.
Solutions to Mitigate Fallout
Diplomatic dialogue remains the most effective way to mitigate the fallout. Both governments should prioritize resolving misunderstandings while protecting the interests of their citizens.
In the interim, Indian students and professionals may consider alternative countries like the UK, Australia, or Germany for education and employment opportunities.
Some experts believe Trudeau may also be positioning himself as a defender of Canadian sovereignty by alleging foreign interference, a move that could resonate with voters concerned about national security. This fits with broader concerns in the West regarding foreign meddling in domestic politics, though India has firmly denied the allegations.
India-Canada relations are undoubtedly at their lowest ebb, with Prime Minister Trudeau’s accusations of Indian involvement in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar further straining diplomatic ties. This extreme move, driven by vote-bank politics and Trudeau’s domestic pressures ahead of upcoming elections, has caused significant strain between the two nations. 
K. S. Tomar
The writer, a senior political analyst, is a former Editor of the Hindustan Times' Rajasthan edition and has spent nearly four decades in journalism, including a six year stint in Nepal where he covered Sino-India-Nepal complex relationship and had a ringside seat to the Himalayan Kingdom's transition into democracy.
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