Will the elections bring a real shift in power, or is Delhi destined for more of the same?
THE SEARCH FOR any ideological content in the Delhi Assembly elections scheduled to be held on 5 February 2025 would be like searching for a needle in a haystack. But this ideological void does not appear to create any serious worry for people in the country’s capital and the centre of power.
This is despite the fact that Delhi/NCR is home to a great number of important citizens: serving and retired government bureaucrats/ officials, jurists/legislators, intellectuals, journalists, personalities associated with literature, art, culture, and education, civil society activists, labour leaders, and various NGO leaders.
In a healthy democracy, election time is, or should be, much more than a time to frame strategies for grabbing power. It should instead be a useful period for ideological churning among candidates, parties, and voters. But such healthy possibilities within a democracy have been outrightly rejected in corporate India and its vehicle, corporate politics.
In the Delhi Assembly elections campaign, the only pitch one can hear is the noise of announcements regarding freebies and the distribution of cash/kind to voters. The present Delhi Assembly elections, in this sense, can be termed simply as a naked competition for power.
From an electoral point of view, this is the second term of the ruling Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly. In the 2013 elections, before the 2015 assembly elections, the AAP government was in power in Delhi under the chief ministership of Arvind Kejriwal.
During this time, the Bharatiya Janata Party had a general majority in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD). In the 2022 MCD elections, 134 members of AAP and 104 members of BJP were elected. That is, there was no significant difference in the number of members from both parties.
The BJP government has been in power at the Centre, and the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi, nominated by the central government, has a direct say in the administration and governance of Delhi.
It would not be wrong to say that from 2013 till now, AAP and BJP have been sharing power jointly in Delhi. Therefore, it would not be correct to assume that a BJP government replacing AAP would lead to a drastic shift in power in Delhi. This suggests that the status quo will continue even if the BJP secures victory.
The present Delhi Assembly elections can be termed simply as a naked competition for power.
At one time, the vote percentage of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Delhi had reached 14%. In the 2008 assembly elections, two of its members were elected. However, the BSP’s vote base was almost wiped out by the popularity storm of AAP.
Meanwhile, communist parties in Delhi have remained dependent on “Kejriwal-kranti” throughout this period. No other party or alliance, including Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), is in a strong position in the electoral field.
Congress is the largest party in Delhi after BJP and AAP. Therefore, any serious change of power in the Delhi Assembly elections in 2025 would mean only the formation of a Congress government. However, this will not happen, regardless of whether someone claims so or Congress wishes for it. This can only occur if the voters of Delhi decide to cast their votes with the genuine intention of bringing about a real change in power against the ongoing status quo.
In its election campaign, Congress is reminding Delhiites of the legacy of Sheila Dikshit, the Chief Minister of Delhi for three consecutive terms before the 2013 elections. The IT Cell of Congress has promoted the message on social media that it is entitled to take credit for Sheila Dikshit’s legacy; hence, Delhiites should vote in its favour in the elections.
It is true that the present-day structure of Delhi is primarily the contribution of Sheila Dikshit. However, some progressive and secular intellectuals do not see much substance in Congress’ claim of Sheila Dikshit’s legacy. They actively argue that it is crucial to bet on Kejriwal again in order to prevent BJP’s victory in the Delhi Assembly elections. They are especially trying to convince Muslims and secular voters not to waste their votes by giving them to Congress.
However, according to election data experts, out of the nine seats won by Congress in the MCD 2022 elections, seven were from Muslim-dominated constituencies. It can also be noted that Muslims, especially women, participated for the first time as citizens, breaking away from the shackles of religious identity.
This was evident in the protest organized in Shaheen Bagh from December 2019 to March 2020 in Delhi against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 and the brutal lathi charge by the police on students in the Jamia Millia Islamia University campus.
Congress, as a political party, openly supported that protest movement, whereas the ruling AAP in Delhi remained engaged in its usual communal manoeuvrings during that entire period.
Progressive and secular intellectuals likely believe that they will convince Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi that letting go of the Delhi Assembly for Kejriwal would not be a bad exchange for a Congress-led government at the Centre in the next Lok Sabha elections, by the strength of the INDIA bloc. They might have also cited the support declared by some member parties of the INDIA bloc to AAP.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the vote percentage of Congress in Delhi was 22%. It was the second-largest party after the BJP (56%). The vote percentage of AAP was 18%.
However, in the Delhi Assembly Elections of 2020, the vote share of Congress fell from 24.7% in 2013 to 9.7% in 2015 and then to just 4.3% in 2020. There are multiple factors behind Congress’ decline in the electoral politics of Delhi, but the directives of progressive and secular intellectuals have been an important one.
These are the same people who strongly opposed the then-Congress government in favour of the anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, Arvind Kejriwal, and Aam Aadmi Party, claiming that there was an atmosphere akin to the freedom movement in the country and that a “third revolution” was about to happen. As a result, the agenda ‘Modi at the Centre’ and ‘Kejriwal in Delhi’ was firmly established.
However, it soon became evident that this was merely a counter-revolution, which only strengthened the grip of communal fascism on the national and social fabric of the country. The co-travelers of that counter-revolution are still seen hiding their faces in the “Kejriwal-kranti” to defeat the fascism of RSS/BJP.
Even now, they raise no objections to Kejriwal’s pro-corporate and overtly communal politics. They also fail to acknowledge that AAP has continuously widened the canvas of far-right and extreme communal politics on a national level in collaboration with the BJP. One can only regret this extreme level of ideological inconsistency. 
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Dr. Prem Singh
The writer, associated with the socialist movement, is a former teacher at Delhi University and a fellow of the Indian Institute of Advanced Study, Shimla.
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